Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Pistons | 36% | 95 | 95 |
 | 15 | Raptors | 64% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Heat | 74% | 101 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 18 | Knicks | 46% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Mavericks | 42% | 99 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Celtics | 79% | 100 | 90 |
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Saturday, December 26, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5 | Mavericks | 78% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 27 | Pacers | 36% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 68% | 100 | 98 |
| 28 | Nets | 32% | 94 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 57% | 97 | 85 | |
 | 24 | Bulls | 43% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Timberwolves | 39% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bobcats | 45% | 90 | 91 |
 | 20 | Thunder | 55% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 57% | 98 | 112 |
 | 16 | Bucks | 43% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Lakers | 72% | 105 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, December 25, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 48% | 98 | 93 |
| 19 | Knicks | 52% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 42% | 93 | 86 |
 | 3 | Magic | 58% | 96 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 36% | 94 | 102 |
| 1 | Lakers | 64% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 25% | 100 | 93 |
| 8 | Suns | 75% | 109 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 53% | 99 | 96 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 13 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 98 | 107 |
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 27% | 94 | 87 |
| 3 | Magic | 73% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 49% | 97 | 94 |
| 24 | Pistons | 51% | 98 | 64 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 53% | 98 | 70 |
| 15 | Heat | 47% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 34% | 96 | 103 |
| 29 | Nets | 66% | 101 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 31% | 98 | 109 |
| 14 | Bucks | 69% | 104 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 24% | 101 | 102 |
| 12 | Hornets | 76% | 110 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 91 | 98 |
| 6 | Spurs | 69% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 35% | 99 | 104 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 65% | 104 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Thunder | 27% | 98 | 117 |
| 8 | Suns | 73% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 73% | 103 | 117 |
| 25 | Kings | 27% | 95 | 104 |
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 36% | 87 | 76 |
| 16 | Bobcats | 64% | 91 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 44% | 101 | 98 |
| 20 | Wizards | 56% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pacers | 10% | 86 | 94 |
| 1 | Celtics | 90% | 103 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 37% | 96 | 81 |
| 21 | Knicks | 63% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 41% | 105 | 108 |
| 22 | Grizzlies | 59% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 74% | 104 | 112 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 26% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 93 | 85 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 66% | 98 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 22% | 92 | 99 |
| 10 | Rockets | 78% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Thunder | 20% | 90 | 108 |
| 2 | Lakers | 80% | 101 | 111 |
Monday, December 21, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 55% | 100 | 84 |
| 28 | Pacers | 45% | 98 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 32% | 97 | 99 |
| 4 | Magic | 68% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 40% | 96 | 102 |
| 24 | Bulls | 60% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Clippers | 22% | 91 | 87 |
| 5 | Spurs | 78% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 47% | 101 | 109 |
| 8 | Suns | 53% | 102 | 91 |
Sunday, December 20, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 55% | 103 | 92 | |
| 19 | Raptors | 45% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 67% | 107 | 96 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 33% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 8% | 85 | 104 |
| 1 | Celtics | 92% | 104 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 67% | 98 | 93 |
| 21 | Pistons | 33% | 92 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 93 | 102 |
| 15 | Heat | 54% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 54% | 96 | 95 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 46% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 37% | 95 | 94 |
| 20 | Knicks | 63% | 100 | 98 |
Saturday, December 19, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 44% | 93 | 110 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 56% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 93 | 83 |
| 4 | Magic | 69% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Clippers | 37% | 95 | 112 |
| 17 | 76ers | 63% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 53% | 97 | 98 |
| 24 | Bulls | 47% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 86% | 104 | 103 |
| 29 | Nets | 14% | 90 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Thunder | 31% | 92 | 90 |
| 9 | Rockets | 69% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 29% | 98 | 96 |
| 14 | Bucks | 71% | 105 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pacers | 14% | 92 | 99 |
| 6 | Spurs | 86% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 26% | 104 | 95 |
| 7 | Suns | 74% | 112 | 121 |
Friday, December 18, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 34% | 97 | 95 | |
| 21 | Raptors | 66% | 103 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 43% | 100 | 83 |
| 10 | Hawks | 57% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 15% | 87 | 98 |
| 2 | Celtics | 85% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 22% | 92 | 82 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 78% | 102 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pacers | 42% | 100 | 94 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 58% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 57% | 103 | 96 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 43% | 101 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 49% | 102 | 92 |
| 11 | Hornets | 51% | 103 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 44% | 99 | 91 |
| 20 | Knicks | 56% | 101 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 41% | 91 | 98 |
| 19 | Thunder | 59% | 94 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 30% | 95 | 116 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 70% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 48% | 106 | 118 |
| 23 | Warriors | 52% | 107 | 109 |
Thursday, December 17, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 47% | 99 | 89 |
| 27 | Bulls | 53% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 59% | 98 | 86 |
| 16 | Heat | 41% | 95 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 45% | 100 | 102 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 102 | 105 |
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Grizzlies | 28% | 98 | 97 |
| 11 | Hawks | 72% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bobcats | 52% | 95 | 98 |
| 29 | Pacers | 48% | 94 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 14% | 94 | 99 |
| 4 | Magic | 86% | 108 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 63% | 97 | 108 |
| 19 | 76ers | 37% | 93 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 67% | 101 | 108 |
| 28 | Nets | 33% | 96 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 62% | 101 | 107 |
| 14 | Bucks | 38% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 54% | 98 | 120 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 46% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 28% | 93 | 87 |
| 13 | Hornets | 72% | 101 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 63% | 98 | 100 |
| 18 | Thunder | 37% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 25% | 99 | 101 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 75% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 55% | 104 | 109 |
| 26 | Kings | 45% | 103 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 62% | 106 | 103 |
| 24 | Warriors | 38% | 102 | 91 |
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 35% | 94 | 87 |
| 14 | Bobcats | 65% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 13% | 88 | 89 | |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 87% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 41% | 97 | 95 |
| 16 | Heat | 59% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 76% | 101 | 96 |
| 25 | Bulls | 24% | 92 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 31% | 92 | 96 |
| 11 | Rockets | 69% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 48% | 103 | 104 |
| 8 | Suns | 52% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 24% | 94 | 88 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 76% | 103 | 95 |
Monday, December 14, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pacers | 14% | 93 | 98 |
| 4 | Magic | 86% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 41% | 102 | 101 |
| 21 | 76ers | 59% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 100 | 110 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 23% | 90 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 27% | 96 | 90 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 73% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Thunder | 21% | 94 | 93 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 79% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 17% | 94 | 110 |
| 9 | Jazz | 83% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 57% | 101 | 95 |
| 28 | Clippers | 43% | 99 | 97 |