Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Pistons | 31% | 92 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Lakers | 76% | 101 | 96 |
 | 25 | Bulls | 24% | 92 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Raptors | 41% | 97 | 95 |
 | 16 | Heat | 59% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 13% | 88 | 89 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Knicks | 35% | 94 | 87 |
 | 14 | Bobcats | 65% | 99 | 94 |
Monday, December 14, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 27% | 96 | 90 | |
 | 5 | Mavericks | 73% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Magic | 86% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 77% | 100 | 110 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Thunder | 21% | 94 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Timberwolves | 17% | 94 | 110 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, December 13, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 69% | 99 | 115 |
| 25 | Clippers | 31% | 92 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 65% | 96 | 102 |
| 17 | Thunder | 35% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 33% | 95 | 118 |
| 14 | Heat | 67% | 101 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 26% | 93 | 107 | |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 12 | Hawks | 74% | 102 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 57% | 103 | 88 |
| 19 | Raptors | 43% | 101 | 101 |
Saturday, December 12, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 79% | 97 | 106 |
| 24 | Bulls | 21% | 86 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pacers | 29% | 98 | 114 |
| 19 | Wizards | 71% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 31% | 99 | 95 |
| 17 | Pistons | 69% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bobcats | 24% | 89 | 97 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 76% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 28% | 105 | 99 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 72% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 53% | 102 | 94 |
| 11 | Jazz | 47% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 31% | 99 | 100 |
| 28 | Kings | 69% | 105 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 96 | 101 |
 | 15 | Bucks | 55% | 98 | 108 |
Friday, December 11, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 52% | 105 | 111 |
| 17 | Raptors | 48% | 104 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 45% | 97 | 91 | |
| 29 | Pacers | 55% | 98 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 56% | 98 | 96 |
| 21 | 76ers | 44% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 56% | 98 | 106 |
| 14 | Heat | 44% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 46% | 102 | 91 |
| 27 | Bulls | 54% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 27% | 89 | 99 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 73% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 31% | 100 | 113 |
| 12 | Hornets | 69% | 107 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bobcats | 27% | 89 | 85 |
| 6 | Spurs | 73% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 8% | 90 | 92 |
| 2 | Lakers | 92% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 49% | 106 | 103 |
| 8 | Suns | 51% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Thunder | 54% | 99 | 102 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 46% | 97 | 94 |
Thursday, December 10, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 69% | 103 | 99 |
| 21 | Pistons | 31% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 71% | 100 | 104 |
| 19 | Wizards | 29% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 60% | 101 | 111 |
| 12 | Jazz | 40% | 98 | 120 |
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 23% | 93 | 83 |
| 12 | Hawks | 77% | 102 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 27% | 97 | 77 |
| 2 | Lakers | 73% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 13% | 93 | 106 |
| 6 | Spurs | 87% | 108 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 49% | 97 | 85 |
| 11 | Rockets | 51% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 67% | 103 | 97 | |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 33% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 41% | 100 | 95 |
| 17 | Bucks | 59% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 49% | 104 | 105 |
| 27 | Nets | 51% | 105 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 44% | 93 | 90 |
| 20 | 76ers | 56% | 95 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 99 | 102 |
| 28 | Pacers | 37% | 94 | 91 |
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 71% | 101 | 97 |
| 24 | Clippers | 29% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 31% | 102 | 101 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 69% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 27% | 99 | 94 |
| 14 | Hornets | 73% | 107 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 73% | 102 | 109 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 27% | 94 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 39% | 92 | 103 | |
| 25 | Bulls | 61% | 95 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 16% | 87 | 89 |
| 1 | Celtics | 84% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 26% | 99 | 88 |
| 16 | Raptors | 74% | 108 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 54% | 98 | 95 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 46% | 97 | 107 |
Monday, December 7, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 102 | 84 |
| 21 | Knicks | 37% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 68% | 106 | 93 |
| 20 | 76ers | 32% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 37% | 101 | 88 |
| 18 | Thunder | 63% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 51% | 100 | 101 |
| 10 | Jazz | 49% | 99 | 104 |
Sunday, December 6, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 22% | 101 | 88 |
| 2 | Lakers | 78% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 62% | 101 | 115 |
| 27 | Kings | 38% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 45% | 96 | 94 |
| 20 | Pistons | 55% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 67% | 100 | 101 |
| 18 | Bucks | 33% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 37% | 99 | 97 | |
| 22 | Knicks | 63% | 103 | 106 |
Saturday, December 5, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 73% | 103 | 101 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 27% | 95 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 36% | 89 | 105 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 64% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 43% | 99 | 110 |
| 22 | Bulls | 57% | 102 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 43% | 101 | 106 |
| 7 | Spurs | 57% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 30% | 98 | 80 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 70% | 105 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 38% | 95 | 89 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 69% | 110 | 126 |
| 24 | Warriors | 31% | 103 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 46% | 100 | 72 |
| 26 | Clippers | 54% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 24% | 103 | 107 |
| 10 | Suns | 76% | 112 | 115 |
Friday, December 4, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 29% | 100 | 114 |
| 12 | Hawks | 71% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 40% | 104 | 109 |
| 17 | Wizards | 60% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 18% | 88 | 87 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 82% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 47% | 94 | 96 |
| 24 | Pistons | 53% | 95 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 72% | 105 | 82 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 28% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 21% | 95 | 89 |
| 13 | Hornets | 79% | 106 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 94 | 105 |
| 15 | Thunder | 37% | 90 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 30% | 99 | 87 |
| 10 | Jazz | 70% | 106 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 20% | 91 | 107 |
| 4 | Lakers | 80% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bobcats | 62% | 92 | 91 |
| 29 | Nets | 38% | 88 | 97 | |
Thursday, December 3, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 52% | 107 | 111 |
| 22 | Warriors | 48% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 28% | 98 | 96 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 72% | 105 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 51% | 95 | 90 |
| 7 | Spurs | 49% | 94 | 83 |
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 21% | 97 | 90 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 79% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 14% | 95 | 104 |
| 3 | Magic | 86% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 47% | 100 | 102 |
| 19 | Wizards | 53% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 75% | 100 | 117 |
| 29 | Nets | 25% | 91 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 41% | 91 | 85 |
| 22 | Bulls | 59% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 55% | 102 | 97 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 45% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 36% | 91 | 106 |
| 17 | Thunder | 64% | 96 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 53% | 104 | 105 |
| 27 | Kings | 47% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 60% | 99 | 102 |
| 26 | Clippers | 40% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 28% | 100 | 115 |
| 9 | Hawks | 72% | 108 | 146 |