Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Bobcats | 52% | 95 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Raptors | 14% | 94 | 99 |
 | 4 | Magic | 86% | 108 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 28 | Nets | 33% | 95 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Lakers | 63% | 101 | 107 |
 | 14 | Bucks | 37% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Timberwolves | 46% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Pistons | 28% | 93 | 87 |
| 13 | Hornets | 72% | 101 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Mavericks | 63% | 98 | 100 |
 | 18 | Thunder | 37% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Knicks | 35% | 94 | 87 |
| 14 | Bobcats | 65% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 13% | 87 | 89 | |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 87% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 41% | 97 | 95 |
 | 16 | Heat | 59% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 75% | 101 | 96 |
 | 25 | Bulls | 25% | 92 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 31% | 92 | 96 |
| 11 | Rockets | 69% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 48% | 103 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 24% | 94 | 88 |
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Monday, December 14, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pacers | 14% | 93 | 98 |
| 4 | Magic | 86% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 41% | 102 | 101 |
| 21 | 76ers | 59% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 77% | 100 | 110 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 23% | 91 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 27% | 96 | 90 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 73% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Thunder | 21% | 94 | 93 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 79% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 17% | 94 | 110 |
| 9 | Jazz | 83% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 57% | 101 | 95 |
| 28 | Clippers | 43% | 99 | 97 |
Sunday, December 13, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 57% | 103 | 88 |
| 19 | Raptors | 43% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 26% | 93 | 107 | |
| 12 | Hawks | 74% | 102 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 33% | 95 | 118 |
| 14 | Heat | 67% | 101 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 66% | 96 | 102 |
| 17 | Thunder | 34% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 69% | 99 | 115 |
| 25 | Clippers | 31% | 93 | 90 |
Saturday, December 12, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pacers | 29% | 98 | 114 |
| 19 | Wizards | 71% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 31% | 99 | 95 |
| 17 | Pistons | 69% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 78% | 96 | 106 |
| 24 | Bulls | 22% | 86 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bobcats | 24% | 89 | 97 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 76% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 96 | 101 |
| 15 | Bucks | 54% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 28% | 105 | 99 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 72% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 54% | 102 | 94 |
| 11 | Jazz | 46% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 30% | 99 | 100 |
| 28 | Kings | 70% | 105 | 120 |
Friday, December 11, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 45% | 97 | 91 | |
| 29 | Pacers | 55% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 56% | 98 | 96 |
| 21 | 76ers | 44% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 52% | 105 | 111 |
| 17 | Raptors | 48% | 104 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 56% | 98 | 106 |
| 14 | Heat | 44% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 46% | 102 | 91 |
| 27 | Bulls | 54% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 27% | 89 | 99 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 73% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Thunder | 54% | 98 | 102 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 46% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 31% | 100 | 113 |
| 12 | Hornets | 69% | 107 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bobcats | 28% | 89 | 85 |
| 6 | Spurs | 72% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 8% | 90 | 92 |
| 2 | Lakers | 92% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 48% | 106 | 103 |
| 8 | Suns | 52% | 107 | 106 |
Thursday, December 10, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 69% | 103 | 99 |
| 21 | Pistons | 31% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 71% | 100 | 104 |
| 19 | Wizards | 29% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 60% | 101 | 111 |
| 12 | Jazz | 40% | 98 | 120 |
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 23% | 93 | 83 |
| 12 | Hawks | 77% | 102 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 99 | 102 |
| 28 | Pacers | 37% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 44% | 93 | 90 |
| 20 | 76ers | 56% | 95 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 49% | 104 | 105 |
| 27 | Nets | 51% | 105 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 41% | 100 | 95 |
| 17 | Bucks | 59% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 67% | 103 | 97 | |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 33% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 49% | 97 | 85 |
| 11 | Rockets | 51% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 13% | 93 | 106 |
| 6 | Spurs | 87% | 108 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 27% | 97 | 77 |
| 2 | Lakers | 73% | 105 | 101 |
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 54% | 98 | 95 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 46% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 26% | 99 | 88 |
| 16 | Raptors | 74% | 108 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 16% | 87 | 89 |
| 1 | Celtics | 84% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 39% | 92 | 103 | |
| 25 | Bulls | 61% | 95 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 73% | 102 | 109 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 27% | 94 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 27% | 99 | 94 |
| 14 | Hornets | 73% | 107 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 31% | 102 | 101 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 69% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 71% | 101 | 97 |
| 24 | Clippers | 29% | 93 | 86 |
Monday, December 7, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 68% | 106 | 93 |
| 20 | 76ers | 32% | 100 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 102 | 84 |
| 21 | Knicks | 37% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 37% | 101 | 88 |
| 18 | Thunder | 63% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 51% | 100 | 101 |
| 10 | Jazz | 49% | 99 | 104 |
Sunday, December 6, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 37% | 99 | 97 | |
| 22 | Knicks | 63% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 67% | 100 | 101 |
| 18 | Bucks | 33% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 44% | 96 | 94 |
| 20 | Pistons | 56% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 63% | 101 | 115 |
| 27 | Kings | 37% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 22% | 101 | 88 |
| 2 | Lakers | 78% | 111 | 108 |
Saturday, December 5, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 37% | 89 | 105 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 63% | 93 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 43% | 99 | 110 |
| 22 | Bulls | 57% | 102 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 73% | 104 | 101 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 27% | 96 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 42% | 101 | 106 |
| 7 | Spurs | 58% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 29% | 97 | 80 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 71% | 105 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 24% | 103 | 107 |
| 10 | Suns | 76% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 38% | 95 | 89 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 70% | 110 | 126 |
| 24 | Warriors | 30% | 103 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 46% | 100 | 72 |
| 26 | Clippers | 54% | 101 | 88 |
Friday, December 4, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 40% | 104 | 109 |
| 17 | Wizards | 60% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 29% | 100 | 114 |
| 12 | Hawks | 71% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 18% | 88 | 87 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 82% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 47% | 94 | 96 |
| 24 | Pistons | 53% | 95 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 72% | 105 | 82 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 28% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bobcats | 61% | 92 | 91 |
| 29 | Nets | 39% | 88 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 21% | 95 | 89 |
| 13 | Hornets | 79% | 106 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 64% | 94 | 105 |
| 15 | Thunder | 36% | 89 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 30% | 99 | 87 |
| 10 | Jazz | 70% | 106 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 20% | 91 | 107 |
| 4 | Lakers | 80% | 102 | 108 |
Thursday, December 3, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 51% | 95 | 90 |
| 7 | Spurs | 49% | 94 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 28% | 97 | 96 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 72% | 105 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 53% | 108 | 111 |
| 22 | Warriors | 47% | 107 | 109 |