Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, January 4, 2007
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Lakers | 44% | 99 | 132 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Mavericks | 78% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Pistons | 66% | 91 | 92 |
| 30 | Hornets | 34% | 86 | 68 | |
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Raptors | 33% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Bucks | 39% | 106 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Celtics | 47% | 94 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Heat | 59% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | SuperSonics | 17% | 87 | 96 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Knicks | 34% | 94 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Timberwolves | 42% | 92 | 103 |
Tuesday, January 2, 2007
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suns | 60% | 104 | 97 |
 | 8 | Bulls | 40% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Clippers | 41% | 90 | 86 |
 | 16 | Magic | 59% | 93 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 55% | 94 | 78 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 45% | 92 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Warriors | 66% | 100 | 97 |
| 30 | Hornets | 34% | 95 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | SuperSonics | 17% | 90 | 88 | |
| 2 | Mavericks | 83% | 103 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 29% | 97 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 24% | 94 | 100 |
| 10 | Kings | 76% | 104 | 112 |
Monday, January 1, 2007
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Celtics | 39% | 93 | 89 |
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 61% | 97 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Timberwolves | 58% | 97 | 102 |
 | 27 | Bobcats | 42% | 94 | 96 |
Sunday, December 31, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 17% | 83 | 109 |
| 4 | Rockets | 83% | 95 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 29 | Hawks | 13% | 86 | 81 |
| 3 | Spurs | 87% | 101 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 31% | 93 | 80 |
| 18 | Clippers | 69% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suns | 67% | 103 | 108 |
| 19 | Pistons | 33% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 57% | 102 | 89 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 43% | 100 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 76ers | 24% | 93 | 94 |
| 5 | Lakers | 76% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Celtics | 43% | 97 | 95 |
| 23 | SuperSonics | 57% | 100 | 101 | |
Saturday, December 30, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Heat | 30% | 89 | 68 |
| 13 | Magic | 70% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bobcats | 30% | 90 | 113 |
| 16 | Pacers | 70% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Timberwolves | 40% | 92 | 92 |
| 15 | Nets | 60% | 95 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 37% | 93 | 104 |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 63% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 39% | 91 | 96 |
| 8 | Bulls | 61% | 94 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 7% | 80 | 80 | |
| 2 | Mavericks | 93% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 90 | 86 |
| 11 | Jazz | 80% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 36% | 101 | 96 |
| 5 | Kings | 64% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wizards | 41% | 106 | 102 |
| 12 | Bucks | 59% | 109 | 119 |
Friday, December 29, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Magic | 34% | 97 | 111 |
| 8 | Wizards | 66% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 65% | 100 | 124 |
| 29 | Bobcats | 35% | 95 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 53% | 94 | 91 | |
| 24 | Heat | 47% | 93 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 39% | 97 | 99 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 61% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 32% | 90 | 93 |
| 5 | Pistons | 68% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 60% | 99 | 89 |
| 30 | Hornets | 40% | 96 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | SuperSonics | 28% | 92 | 82 | |
| 15 | Timberwolves | 72% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 18% | 84 | 68 |
| 4 | Rockets | 82% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Knicks | 14% | 99 | 86 |
| 1 | Suns | 86% | 112 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 76ers | 44% | 93 | 98 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kings | 47% | 96 | 93 |
| 19 | Clippers | 53% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Celtics | 28% | 98 | 100 |
| 12 | Warriors | 72% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 62% | 97 | 107 |
| 22 | Raptors | 38% | 93 | 97 |
Thursday, December 28, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | SuperSonics | 34% | 103 | 98 | |
| 13 | Nuggets | 66% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 30% | 93 | 83 |
| 3 | Spurs | 70% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 39% | 100 | 99 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 61% | 104 | 101 |
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 48% | 91 | 96 |
| 15 | Nets | 52% | 92 | 71 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Timberwolves | 45% | 92 | 97 |
| 24 | Raptors | 55% | 94 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wizards | 60% | 103 | 114 |
| 28 | Bobcats | 40% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cavaliers | 64% | 97 | 89 |
| 29 | Hawks | 36% | 92 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 51% | 96 | 106 |
| 19 | Magic | 49% | 95 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pistons | 58% | 96 | 145 |
| 27 | Knicks | 42% | 94 | 151 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 47% | 99 | 112 |
| 22 | Grizzlies | 53% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 39% | 92 | 103 |
| 7 | Bulls | 61% | 96 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 76ers | 24% | 93 | 76 |
| 12 | Kings | 76% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 37% | 89 | 85 | |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 93 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Celtics | 32% | 91 | 77 |
| 21 | Clippers | 68% | 97 | 100 |
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 33% | 99 | 101 |
| 7 | Wizards | 67% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 60% | 93 | 76 |
| 23 | Pacers | 40% | 90 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 40% | 92 | 91 | |
| 12 | Pistons | 60% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 30% | 93 | 114 |
| 5 | Spurs | 70% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 53% | 93 | 98 |
| 17 | Timberwolves | 47% | 92 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bobcats | 12% | 87 | 84 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 88% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Clippers | 26% | 93 | 92 |
| 3 | Jazz | 74% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 12% | 95 | 87 |
| 1 | Suns | 88% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 33% | 92 | 94 | |
| 22 | SuperSonics | 67% | 98 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 36% | 98 | 97 |
| 15 | Warriors | 64% | 102 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celtics | 29% | 99 | 105 |
| 13 | Nuggets | 71% | 106 | 116 |
Monday, December 25, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 48% | 98 | 85 |
| 12 | Heat | 52% | 99 | 101 |
Saturday, December 23, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Warriors | 38% | 99 | 92 |
| 15 | Heat | 62% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 44% | 93 | 78 |
| 17 | Pacers | 56% | 96 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 42% | 95 | 77 |
| 25 | 76ers | 58% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hawks | 19% | 90 | 81 |
| 9 | Pistons | 81% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 27% | 88 | 83 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 73% | 96 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 53% | 97 | 100 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 47% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 21% | 89 | 76 |
| 6 | Bulls | 79% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 47% | 100 | 104 | |
| 18 | Bucks | 53% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Clippers | 25% | 86 | 98 |
| 4 | Rockets | 75% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 35% | 96 | 97 |
| 22 | SuperSonics | 65% | 101 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 75% | 94 | 112 |
| 29 | Hornets | 25% | 85 | 77 | |
Friday, December 22, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Warriors | 49% | 98 | 117 |
| 20 | Magic | 51% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 44% | 98 | 99 |
| 12 | Nets | 56% | 100 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 65% | 98 | 92 |
| 28 | Knicks | 35% | 94 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 51% | 95 | 100 |
| 22 | Hawks | 49% | 94 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 36% | 92 | 98 |
| 24 | Celtics | 64% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Grizzlies | 49% | 90 | 97 |
| 29 | Hornets | 51% | 91 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 30% | 86 | 97 |
| 3 | Spurs | 70% | 92 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 39% | 97 | 113 |
| 16 | Timberwolves | 61% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Clippers | 21% | 89 | 83 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 79% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 28% | 102 | 101 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 72% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 47% | 95 | 101 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 20% | 104 | 144 |
| 2 | Suns | 80% | 114 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 63% | 99 | 89 |
| 25 | Bobcats | 37% | 95 | 101 |