Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, December 22, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Bobcats | 37% | 95 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Magic | 51% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Lakers | 44% | 98 | 99 |
| 12 | Nets | 56% | 100 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Bulls | 65% | 98 | 92 |
 | 28 | Knicks | 35% | 94 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Celtics | 64% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 29 | Hornets | 51% | 91 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Bucks | 39% | 97 | 113 |
 | 16 | Timberwolves | 61% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Mavericks | 79% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Raptors | 47% | 95 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thursday, December 21, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Pistons | 42% | 91 | 87 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 8 | Cavaliers | 58% | 94 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 40% | 101 | 126 |
| 12 | Kings | 60% | 104 | 119 |
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 57% | 94 | 101 |
| 30 | 76ers | 43% | 92 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 63% | 99 | 112 |
| 24 | Hawks | 37% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 40% | 86 | 83 | |
| 22 | Magic | 60% | 89 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 43% | 103 | 96 |
| 17 | Celtics | 57% | 105 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bobcats | 41% | 95 | 109 |
| 26 | Knicks | 59% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 46% | 94 | 111 |
| 14 | Nets | 54% | 96 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Heat | 47% | 99 | 95 |
| 20 | Bucks | 53% | 100 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Grizzlies | 15% | 85 | 98 |
| 3 | Spurs | 85% | 98 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 41% | 95 | 111 |
| 16 | Timberwolves | 59% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 70% | 94 | 87 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 87 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 30% | 92 | 98 |
| 19 | Clippers | 70% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mavericks | 71% | 101 | 103 |
| 21 | SuperSonics | 29% | 94 | 95 | |
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 37% | 96 | 89 |
| 4 | Bulls | 63% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 15% | 97 | 98 |
| 1 | Suns | 85% | 110 | 115 |
Monday, December 18, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 34% | 99 | 97 |
| 12 | Nets | 66% | 104 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 60% | 102 | 96 |
| 26 | Knicks | 40% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 30% | 87 | 99 | |
| 14 | Heat | 70% | 94 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | SuperSonics | 37% | 93 | 126 | |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 63% | 97 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 33% | 105 | 108 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 67% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 60% | 98 | 109 |
| 13 | Kings | 40% | 95 | 91 |
Sunday, December 17, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 49% | 100 | 115 |
| 21 | Raptors | 51% | 101 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 55% | 99 | 104 |
| 18 | Pacers | 45% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 58% | 91 | 108 |
| 20 | Clippers | 42% | 88 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | SuperSonics | 34% | 93 | 93 | |
| 13 | Pistons | 66% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 34% | 100 | 147 |
| 7 | Lakers | 66% | 106 | 141 |
Saturday, December 16, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 47% | 97 | 106 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 53% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bulls | 63% | 95 | 106 |
| 24 | Hawks | 37% | 91 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cavaliers | 54% | 91 | 74 |
| 23 | Magic | 46% | 90 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 57% | 105 | 123 |
| 27 | Knicks | 43% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 35% | 90 | 90 |
| 16 | Heat | 65% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pistons | 47% | 95 | 90 |
| 14 | Nets | 53% | 96 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 70% | 95 | 90 |
| 29 | Hornets | 30% | 88 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 8% | 82 | 98 |
| 2 | Spurs | 92% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 52% | 99 | 104 |
| 19 | Bucks | 48% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suns | 56% | 106 | 105 |
| 9 | Kings | 44% | 104 | 98 |
Friday, December 15, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 55% | 97 | 78 | |
| 23 | Raptors | 45% | 95 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 30% | 95 | 95 |
| 13 | Wizards | 70% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 37% | 95 | 96 |
| 17 | Pacers | 63% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 48% | 104 | 114 |
| 18 | Celtics | 52% | 105 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | SuperSonics | 26% | 92 | 84 | |
| 7 | Cavaliers | 74% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 31% | 89 | 97 |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 69% | 96 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 11% | 85 | 79 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 89% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 27% | 96 | 111 |
| 5 | Bulls | 73% | 104 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kings | 34% | 97 | 98 |
| 4 | Jazz | 66% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 16% | 102 | 101 |
| 1 | Suns | 84% | 115 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Clippers | 55% | 94 | 99 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 92 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 39% | 92 | 101 |
| 8 | Lakers | 61% | 95 | 112 |
Thursday, December 14, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 43% | 90 | 89 |
| 25 | Bobcats | 57% | 92 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 69% | 93 | 103 |
| 26 | Hornets | 31% | 87 | 77 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 51% | 97 | 107 |
| 15 | Warriors | 49% | 96 | 109 |
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 49% | 96 | 101 |
| 25 | 76ers | 51% | 97 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 42% | 106 | 91 |
| 15 | Wizards | 58% | 109 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 39% | 90 | 91 |
| 21 | Magic | 61% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suns | 73% | 105 | 99 |
| 23 | Heat | 27% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 24% | 89 | 101 |
| 7 | Cavaliers | 76% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pistons | 55% | 94 | 90 |
| 17 | Pacers | 45% | 92 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 29% | 98 | 95 |
| 12 | Nets | 71% | 105 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hawks | 31% | 94 | 82 |
| 22 | Knicks | 69% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 36% | 90 | 85 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 64% | 95 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Timberwolves | 25% | 88 | 82 |
| 3 | Spurs | 75% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SuperSonics | 21% | 92 | 84 | |
| 4 | Bulls | 79% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 23% | 93 | 101 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 77% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 57% | 97 | 105 |
| 19 | Clippers | 43% | 95 | 86 |
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 63% | 103 | 100 |
| 30 | Hawks | 37% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 40% | 102 | 93 | |
| 16 | Bucks | 60% | 105 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 37% | 90 | 102 |
| 6 | Rockets | 63% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kings | 45% | 101 | 113 |
| 15 | Warriors | 55% | 102 | 126 |
Monday, December 11, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 36% | 92 | 81 |
| 27 | 76ers | 64% | 96 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 56% | 101 | 103 |
| 16 | Magic | 44% | 100 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 30% | 91 | 92 |
| 12 | Nets | 70% | 98 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 44% | 100 | 97 |
| 22 | Knicks | 56% | 102 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 27% | 91 | 77 |
| 11 | Heat | 73% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 62% | 92 | 89 |
| 28 | Hornets | 38% | 88 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pacers | 24% | 89 | 91 |
| 7 | Bulls | 76% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mavericks | 55% | 99 | 79 |
| 4 | Jazz | 45% | 98 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 56% | 94 | 103 |
| 18 | Clippers | 44% | 92 | 81 |
Sunday, December 10, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 92 | 93 |
| 21 | Raptors | 69% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 75% | 107 | 114 |
| 29 | Bobcats | 25% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 26% | 91 | 92 |
| 9 | Kings | 74% | 99 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 42% | 101 | 115 |
| 20 | SuperSonics | 58% | 103 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 56% | 97 | 99 |
| 11 | Lakers | 44% | 95 | 106 |
Saturday, December 9, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 55% | 96 | 114 |
| 14 | Wizards | 45% | 94 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 28% | 88 | 84 |
| 16 | Magic | 72% | 96 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Celtics | 27% | 95 | 92 |
| 13 | Nets | 73% | 103 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 40% | 102 | 107 |
| 22 | Knicks | 60% | 105 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 27% | 91 | 75 |
| 10 | Cavaliers | 73% | 98 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Clippers | 51% | 93 | 89 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 49% | 92 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Timberwolves | 32% | 91 | 91 |
| 7 | Bulls | 68% | 97 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 19% | 97 | 90 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 81% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 30% | 93 | 80 | |
| 18 | Warriors | 70% | 100 | 101 |