Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, December 19, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Bulls | 14% | 88 | 108 |
 | 1 | Celtics | 86% | 102 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Mavericks | 61% | 101 | 97 |
| 19 | Nets | 39% | 98 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Bucks | 41% | 104 | 105 |
 | 17 | Knicks | 59% | 107 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Pistons | 55% | 96 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Bobcats | 51% | 92 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Lakers | 65% | 102 | 87 |
 | 16 | Heat | 35% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Raptors | 70% | 101 | 83 |
 | 30 | Thunder | 30% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thursday, December 18, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Magic | 58% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 12 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 101 | 124 |
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 65% | 96 | 88 |
| 14 | Hawks | 35% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 36% | 103 | 120 |
| 21 | Pacers | 64% | 108 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 37% | 95 | 88 |
| 16 | 76ers | 63% | 100 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 55% | 99 | 96 |
| 15 | Raptors | 45% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 27% | 93 | 74 |
| 13 | Pistons | 73% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 56% | 101 | 103 |
| 17 | Nets | 44% | 99 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 76% | 101 | 93 |
 | 27 | Timberwolves | 24% | 92 | 70 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Clippers | 43% | 95 | 109 |
| 22 | Bulls | 57% | 97 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 48% | 90 | 83 |
| 8 | Hornets | 52% | 91 | 90 | |
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 54% | 96 | 101 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 46% | 95 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 71% | 97 | 91 | |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 29% | 90 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 67% | 99 | 98 |
| 30 | Thunder | 33% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 38% | 95 | 96 |
| 10 | Rockets | 62% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 16% | 92 | 77 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 84% | 104 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 16% | 100 | 114 |
| 2 | Lakers | 84% | 113 | 116 |
Monday, December 15, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bobcats | 29% | 89 | 79 |
| 13 | Hawks | 71% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 42% | 98 | 94 | |
| 15 | Raptors | 58% | 100 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 48% | 100 | 118 |
| 23 | Wizards | 52% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 27% | 91 | 91 |
| 1 | Celtics | 73% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 42% | 97 | 98 |
| 18 | Heat | 58% | 100 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 43% | 100 | 98 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 57% | 102 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 25% | 103 | 103 |
| 8 | Suns | 75% | 111 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Timberwolves | 41% | 100 | 103 |
| 29 | Kings | 59% | 102 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 58% | 105 | 109 |
| 25 | Warriors | 42% | 103 | 98 |
Sunday, December 14, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 56% | 96 | 99 | |
| 18 | Raptors | 44% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 63% | 97 | 86 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 37% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 8% | 86 | 104 |
| 4 | Spurs | 92% | 104 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Timberwolves | 12% | 96 | 86 |
| 2 | Lakers | 88% | 111 | 98 |
Saturday, December 13, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 57% | 94 | 92 |
| 14 | Hawks | 43% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 52% | 92 | 90 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 48% | 91 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Wizards | 38% | 95 | 89 |
| 16 | 76ers | 62% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 42% | 99 | 104 | |
| 21 | Bulls | 58% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 12% | 91 | 99 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 88% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 45% | 100 | 103 |
| 25 | Bucks | 55% | 102 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 15% | 98 | 105 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 85% | 112 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 28% | 96 | 103 |
| 7 | Jazz | 72% | 103 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 53% | 105 | 114 |
| 27 | Kings | 47% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 60% | 95 | 82 |
| 20 | Clippers | 40% | 92 | 95 |
Friday, December 12, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 23% | 88 | 72 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 77% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 38% | 94 | 87 |
| 13 | Heat | 62% | 98 | 73 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 37% | 98 | 101 |
| 15 | Nets | 63% | 103 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 29% | 87 | 82 | |
| 1 | Celtics | 71% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 36% | 94 | 110 |
| 14 | Pistons | 64% | 98 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 56% | 99 | 96 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 44% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 72% | 100 | 98 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 28% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Magic | 40% | 100 | 112 |
| 9 | Suns | 60% | 103 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Clippers | 27% | 90 | 120 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 73% | 98 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 62% | 102 | 119 |
| 22 | Warriors | 38% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 12% | 95 | 103 |
| 2 | Lakers | 88% | 111 | 112 |
Thursday, December 11, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 73% | 99 | 122 |
| 20 | Wizards | 27% | 91 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 16% | 87 | 90 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 84% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 95 | 88 |
| 7 | Jazz | 62% | 99 | 97 |
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 49% | 99 | 88 |
| 20 | Raptors | 51% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 28% | 100 | 121 |
| 15 | Nets | 72% | 108 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bobcats | 25% | 86 | 89 |
| 9 | Hornets | 75% | 95 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 54% | 98 | 108 |
| 30 | Thunder | 46% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cavaliers | 54% | 93 | 101 |
| 17 | 76ers | 46% | 92 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 26% | 90 | 89 |
| 3 | Spurs | 74% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 13% | 93 | 105 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 87% | 108 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 36% | 102 | 96 |
| 21 | Warriors | 64% | 107 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 27% | 101 | 110 |
| 2 | Lakers | 73% | 109 | 115 |
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 22% | 90 | 94 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 78% | 100 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 55% | 96 | 94 |
| 20 | Wizards | 45% | 95 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 70% | 103 | 99 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 30% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 39% | 103 | 100 |
| 22 | Bulls | 61% | 107 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 42% | 92 | 133 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 58% | 95 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 37% | 92 | 84 |
| 11 | Rockets | 63% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 24% | 96 | 110 |
| 7 | Suns | 76% | 105 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Magic | 36% | 93 | 109 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 64% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 81% | 108 | 101 |
| 27 | Kings | 19% | 97 | 113 |
Monday, December 8, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bobcats | 29% | 90 | 96 |
| 14 | Heat | 71% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 76% | 97 | 97 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 24% | 87 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 62% | 107 | 112 |
| 30 | Thunder | 38% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Magic | 57% | 97 | 95 |
| 22 | Clippers | 43% | 95 | 88 |
Sunday, December 7, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pistons | 61% | 103 | 92 |
| 25 | Knicks | 39% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 97 | 98 |
| 18 | Raptors | 48% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 69% | 98 | 122 |
| 19 | Pacers | 31% | 91 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 14% | 95 | 92 |
| 1 | Lakers | 86% | 109 | 105 |
Saturday, December 6, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 63% | 94 | 94 |
| 19 | Bobcats | 37% | 89 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 15% | 90 | 99 |
| 14 | Heat | 85% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 39% | 95 | 95 | |
| 18 | 76ers | 61% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Clippers | 49% | 97 | 107 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 51% | 98 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 11% | 86 | 87 |
| 4 | Hornets | 89% | 102 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 37% | 97 | 110 |
| 24 | Bulls | 63% | 101 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 26% | 94 | 98 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 74% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Warriors | 20% | 95 | 88 |
| 5 | Spurs | 80% | 105 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 36% | 98 | 104 |
| 9 | Suns | 64% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 65% | 105 | 118 |
| 23 | Kings | 35% | 100 | 85 |