Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, March 1, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Mavericks | 47% | 92 | 89 |
 | 13 | Bobcats | 53% | 93 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Knicks | 15% | 95 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Magic | 58% | 98 | 126 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 23 | Bulls | 46% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 19 | Hornets | 44% | 97 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Raptors | 30% | 99 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 38% | 101 | 110 |
| 10 | Spurs | 62% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 33% | 99 | 89 |
 | 2 | Lakers | 67% | 105 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Bucks | 29% | 94 | 102 |
| 9 | Hawks | 71% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 29 | Nets | 48% | 96 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 35% | 95 | 99 |
 | 14 | Thunder | 65% | 101 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Heat | 19% | 88 | 80 |
| 3 | Magic | 81% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 44% | 99 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hornets | 26% | 94 | 100 | |
| 6 | Mavericks | 74% | 102 | 108 |
Saturday, February 27, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 13% | 86 | 104 | |
 | 5 | Celtics | 87% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 51% | 92 | 94 |
| 23 | Heat | 49% | 91 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 44% | 98 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 40% | 100 | 120 |
| 17 | Knicks | 60% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 72% | 102 | 110 |
 | 28 | Timberwolves | 28% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 28% | 96 | 110 |
| 7 | Jazz | 72% | 104 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Pistons | 36% | 100 | 88 |
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Friday, February 26, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 63% | 103 | 126 |
| 15 | Raptors | 37% | 98 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 59% | 102 | 118 |
| 29 | Wizards | 41% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 43% | 96 | 111 |
| 8 | Hawks | 57% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 96 | 111 |
| 21 | Bulls | 44% | 94 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bobcats | 51% | 95 | 93 |
| 22 | Grizzlies | 49% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 65% | 100 | 93 |
| 18 | Hornets | 35% | 95 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 23% | 92 | 92 |
| 12 | Thunder | 77% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 57% | 100 | 104 |
| 17 | Rockets | 43% | 97 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 22% | 95 | 102 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 78% | 106 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 68% | 103 | 99 |
| 27 | Kings | 32% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 19% | 91 | 90 |
| 2 | Lakers | 81% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 27% | 100 | 112 |
| 11 | Suns | 73% | 108 | 125 |
Thursday, February 25, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 52% | 99 | 112 |
| 25 | Pacers | 48% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 46% | 94 | 108 |
| 5 | Celtics | 54% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 62% | 110 | 127 |
| 16 | Warriors | 38% | 105 | 112 |
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 14% | 93 | 92 |
| 7 | Hawks | 86% | 107 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 99 | 101 |
| 17 | Raptors | 51% | 100 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Grizzlies | 52% | 100 | 99 |
| 28 | Wizards | 48% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pacers | 40% | 97 | 110 |
| 22 | Bulls | 60% | 100 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 33% | 93 | 95 | |
| 14 | Bucks | 67% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 65% | 101 | 110 |
| 18 | Rockets | 35% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thunder | 29% | 92 | 87 |
| 6 | Spurs | 71% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 51% | 98 | 96 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 49% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 31% | 99 | 95 |
| 11 | Suns | 69% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bobcats | 36% | 91 | 93 |
| 10 | Jazz | 64% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 39% | 94 | 91 |
| 26 | Clippers | 61% | 98 | 97 |
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hornets | 21% | 93 | 95 | |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 79% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 16% | 90 | 106 |
| 3 | Celtics | 84% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 31% | 92 | 91 |
| 24 | Heat | 69% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 72% | 99 | 102 |
| 28 | Nets | 28% | 91 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 64% | 101 | 99 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 36% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 45% | 100 | 104 |
| 12 | Thunder | 55% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 48% | 96 | 101 |
| 27 | Kings | 52% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 41% | 101 | 110 |
| 16 | Warriors | 59% | 104 | 102 |
Monday, February 22, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 60% | 98 | 95 |
| 29 | Wizards | 40% | 95 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 48% | 100 | 83 |
| 18 | Knicks | 52% | 101 | 67 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pacers | 19% | 93 | 82 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 81% | 105 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 36% | 96 | 105 |
| 8 | Jazz | 64% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bobcats | 59% | 94 | 94 |
| 26 | Clippers | 41% | 91 | 98 |
Sunday, February 21, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 41% | 95 | 95 |
| 2 | Magic | 59% | 98 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 44% | 97 | 105 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 56% | 99 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spurs | 65% | 97 | 101 |
| 23 | Pistons | 35% | 92 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 61% | 101 | 104 |
| 29 | Nets | 39% | 97 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thunder | 65% | 100 | 109 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 35% | 95 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 41% | 98 | 94 |
| 17 | Hornets | 59% | 101 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 55% | 105 | 104 |
| 16 | Warriors | 45% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 21% | 100 | 88 |
| 11 | Suns | 79% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 49% | 96 | 93 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 97 | 89 |
Saturday, February 20, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 27% | 97 | 104 |
| 18 | Raptors | 73% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thunder | 55% | 99 | 121 |
| 22 | Knicks | 45% | 98 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 42% | 93 | 90 |
| 21 | Bulls | 58% | 96 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 22% | 88 | 91 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 78% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 32% | 97 | 125 |
| 17 | Rockets | 68% | 103 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bobcats | 45% | 90 | 88 |
| 14 | Bucks | 55% | 92 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 44% | 99 | 89 |
| 27 | Clippers | 56% | 101 | 99 |
Friday, February 19, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 57% | 93 | 93 |
| 13 | Bobcats | 43% | 91 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 63% | 98 | 94 |
| 20 | 76ers | 37% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 75% | 106 | 97 |
| 30 | Wizards | 25% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 51% | 96 | 91 |
| 23 | Pistons | 49% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 40% | 94 | 100 |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 60% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 60% | 101 | 100 |
| 29 | Timberwolves | 40% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 60% | 102 | 106 |
| 28 | Nets | 40% | 99 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 38% | 99 | 101 |
| 16 | Hornets | 62% | 103 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 35% | 95 | 95 |
| 2 | Magic | 65% | 100 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 40% | 103 | 80 |
| 9 | Suns | 60% | 106 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 58% | 106 | 100 |
| 14 | Warriors | 42% | 103 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 48% | 91 | 96 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 92 | 76 |
Thursday, February 18, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 34% | 98 | 118 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 66% | 103 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 42% | 92 | 87 |
| 4 | Lakers | 58% | 94 | 86 |
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 65% | 103 | 90 |
| 24 | Pacers | 35% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 16% | 89 | 91 |
| 3 | Magic | 84% | 102 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 30% | 101 | 109 |
| 13 | Raptors | 70% | 107 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 30% | 99 | 99 |
| 27 | Wizards | 70% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 65% | 97 | 87 |
| 29 | Nets | 35% | 92 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bulls | 43% | 96 | 115 |
| 21 | Knicks | 57% | 98 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 37% | 94 | 127 |
| 16 | Bucks | 63% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 61% | 101 | 98 |
| 23 | Hornets | 39% | 97 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 37% | 102 | 97 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 63% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 36% | 105 | 98 |
| 17 | Warriors | 64% | 110 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 67% | 100 | 110 |
| 28 | Clippers | 33% | 94 | 92 |
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 21% | 89 | 103 | |
| 12 | Bobcats | 79% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 49% | 94 | 105 |
| 18 | 76ers | 51% | 95 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 34% | 96 | 85 |
| 22 | Pistons | 66% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 48% | 96 | 85 |
| 26 | Bulls | 52% | 97 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 57% | 108 | 109 |
| 21 | Grizzlies | 43% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 46% | 93 | 86 |
| 14 | Thunder | 54% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 59% | 100 | 104 |
| 19 | Rockets | 41% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 25% | 91 | 87 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 75% | 100 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 67% | 100 | 95 |
| 25 | Kings | 33% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 21% | 98 | 94 |
| 1 | Lakers | 79% | 109 | 104 |