Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, February 20, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Bulls | 69% | 95 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 20% | 96 | 100 | |
 | 6 | Knicks | 80% | 107 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Magic | 49% | 95 | 93 |
 | 19 | Bucks | 51% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Celtics | 27% | 87 | 73 |
 | 2 | Mavericks | 73% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 22% | 89 | 93 | |
 | 4 | Thunder | 78% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Timberwolves | 35% | 101 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Lakers | 53% | 95 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, February 19, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 53% | 98 | 97 |
| 11 | Knicks | 47% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Magic | 33% | 93 | 78 |
 | 1 | Heat | 67% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 66% | 96 | 81 |
 | 28 | Pistons | 34% | 91 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bobcats | 23% | 91 | 73 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 58% | 101 | 92 |
| 23 | Nets | 42% | 98 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 34% | 97 | 85 |
| 15 | Rockets | 66% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 19 | Timberwolves | 45% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 35% | 100 | 118 |
| 7 | Thunder | 65% | 105 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 54% | 98 | 90 |
| 17 | Suns | 46% | 97 | 102 |
Saturday, February 18, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 45% | 97 | 103 |
| 5 | Clippers | 55% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 13% | 88 | 97 | |
| 1 | Bulls | 87% | 103 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 33% | 94 | 103 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 67% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 35% | 92 | 77 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 65% | 97 | 97 |
Friday, February 17, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 35% | 94 | 98 |
 | 25 | Raptors | 65% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 45% | 92 | 82 |
| 10 | 76ers | 55% | 93 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 26% | 93 | 85 |
| 3 | Magic | 74% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 46% | 98 | 108 |
| 27 | Pistons | 54% | 99 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 78% | 105 | 111 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 22% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 25% | 88 | 89 | |
| 11 | Knicks | 75% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 41% | 96 | 102 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 59% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 37% | 98 | 111 |
| 14 | Rockets | 63% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 30% | 99 | 87 |
| 6 | Thunder | 70% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 32% | 96 | 100 |
| 22 | Jazz | 68% | 102 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Suns | 30% | 94 | 99 |
| 8 | Lakers | 70% | 100 | 111 |
Thursday, February 16, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 32% | 94 | 88 | |
| 21 | Pacers | 68% | 100 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 25% | 85 | 80 |
| 2 | Bulls | 75% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 40% | 96 | 74 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 100 | 71 |
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 70% | 99 | 113 |
| 24 | Raptors | 30% | 92 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 44% | 92 | 87 |
| 9 | Magic | 56% | 95 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 14% | 85 | 98 |
| 8 | Celtics | 86% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 55% | 98 | 105 |
| 23 | Nets | 45% | 96 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 24% | 94 | 85 |
| 12 | Knicks | 76% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 56% | 97 | 87 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 44% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 31% | 89 | 92 | |
| 19 | Bucks | 69% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 49% | 100 | 95 |
| 14 | Rockets | 51% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 21% | 94 | 90 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 79% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 26% | 94 | 84 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 74% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 49% | 96 | 101 |
| 18 | Suns | 51% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 101 | 93 |
| 17 | Warriors | 52% | 102 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 14% | 91 | 84 |
| 7 | Clippers | 86% | 106 | 102 |
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 63% | 97 | 90 |
| 24 | Raptors | 37% | 93 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 56% | 98 | 105 |
| 19 | Pacers | 44% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 76% | 102 | 99 |
| 28 | Pistons | 24% | 92 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 15% | 88 | 115 |
| 2 | Bulls | 85% | 102 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 45% | 95 | 83 |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 55% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 21% | 95 | 85 |
| 5 | Thunder | 79% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 33% | 100 | 92 |
| 12 | Nuggets | 67% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 14% | 90 | 124 |
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 86% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 33% | 90 | 78 |
| 7 | Lakers | 67% | 96 | 86 |
Monday, February 13, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 84% | 100 | 98 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 16% | 87 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 29% | 94 | 89 |
| 7 | Magic | 71% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 58% | 100 | 114 |
| 20 | Bucks | 42% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 51% | 95 | 80 |
| 24 | Hornets | 49% | 94 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 35% | 94 | 92 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 65% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 48% | 102 | 96 |
| 19 | Warriors | 52% | 103 | 102 |
Sunday, February 12, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 69% | 97 | 94 |
| 24 | Raptors | 31% | 90 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 48% | 89 | 91 |
| 7 | Celtics | 52% | 90 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 40% | 96 | 98 |
| 27 | Pistons | 60% | 99 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 55% | 96 | 107 |
| 13 | Hawks | 45% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rockets | 48% | 102 | 97 |
| 19 | Warriors | 52% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 38% | 94 | 98 |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 62% | 98 | 88 |
Saturday, February 11, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 80% | 102 | 111 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 20% | 90 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 49% | 98 | 113 |
| 16 | Pacers | 51% | 99 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 71% | 99 | 99 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 29% | 91 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 74% | 104 | 103 |
| 23 | Nets | 26% | 95 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Knicks | 48% | 99 | 100 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 52% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 95 | 94 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 61% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Magic | 52% | 96 | 99 |
| 20 | Bucks | 48% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 59% | 102 | 98 |
| 25 | Kings | 41% | 99 | 84 |
Friday, February 10, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 68% | 93 | 74 |
| 27 | Raptors | 32% | 87 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 41% | 94 | 78 |
| 11 | 76ers | 59% | 97 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 83% | 104 | 106 |
| 29 | Wizards | 17% | 92 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 87% | 100 | 95 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 13% | 85 | 64 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 37% | 91 | 89 |
| 10 | Magic | 63% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 51% | 100 | 92 | |
| 28 | Pistons | 49% | 99 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 58% | 98 | 113 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 42% | 96 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 47% | 95 | 85 |
| 14 | Knicks | 53% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 47% | 92 | 92 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 53% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Trail Blazers | 73% | 97 | 94 |
| 26 | Hornets | 27% | 89 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 63% | 99 | 104 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 37% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 56% | 102 | 101 |
| 21 | Jazz | 44% | 100 | 87 |
Thursday, February 9, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 43% | 89 | 88 |
| 11 | Celtics | 57% | 92 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 33% | 101 | 109 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 67% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 41% | 99 | 96 |
| 17 | Suns | 59% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 73% | 105 | 101 |
| 25 | Kings | 27% | 97 | 106 |
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 53% | 97 | 105 |
| 27 | Raptors | 47% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spurs | 41% | 93 | 100 |
| 10 | 76ers | 59% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 68% | 100 | 107 |
| 29 | Wizards | 32% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 49% | 96 | 89 |
| 11 | Magic | 51% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 69% | 103 | 92 |
| 24 | Cavaliers | 31% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 35% | 95 | 99 |
| 23 | Nets | 65% | 100 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 40% | 91 | 87 |
| 17 | Hawks | 60% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 33% | 94 | 80 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 67% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 77% | 95 | 90 |
| 25 | Hornets | 23% | 85 | 67 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 44% | 99 | 105 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 56% | 101 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 31% | 96 | 103 |
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 69% | 103 | 96 |
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 29% | 93 | 99 |
| 13 | Pacers | 71% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 12% | 82 | 84 |
| 10 | Celtics | 88% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 15% | 93 | 91 |
| 1 | Heat | 85% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Suns | 36% | 96 | 107 |
| 20 | Bucks | 64% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 25% | 97 | 84 |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 75% | 106 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 56% | 103 | 119 |
| 21 | Warriors | 44% | 101 | 116 |