Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, May 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Raptors | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Hornets | 73 | ||
 | 12 | Heat | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Saturday, April 30, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Thunder | 92 | ||
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Friday, April 29, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 83 | ||
| 10 | Pacers | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 97 | ||
| 8 | Hornets | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Trail Blazers | 106 | ||
Thursday, April 28, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Celtics | 92 | ||
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 90 | ||
| 12 | Heat | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 108 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 98 | ||
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 99 | ||
| 7 | Raptors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 83 | ||
| 6 | Hawks | 110 | ||
Monday, April 25, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 85 | ||
| 8 | Hornets | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Mavericks | 104 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 84 | ||
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 98 | ||
Sunday, April 24, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 4 | Cavaliers | 100 | ||
 | 18 | Pistons | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hawks | 95 | ||
| 10 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 121 | ||
| 9 | Rockets | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 116 | ||
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Saturday, April 23, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 83 | ||
| 13 | Pacers | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 80 | ||
| 9 | Hornets | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 119 | ||
| 15 | Mavericks | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 88 | ||
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 96 | ||
Friday, April 22, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 101 | ||
| 17 | Pistons | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 103 | ||
| 11 | Celtics | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 96 | ||
| 22 | Grizzlies | 87 | ||
Thursday, April 21, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 101 | ||
| 15 | Pacers | 85 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 96 | ||
| 8 | Rockets | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 131 | ||
| 14 | Mavericks | 102 | ||
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 90 | ||
| 4 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 103 | ||
| 10 | Heat | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 81 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 102 | ||
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 72 | ||
| 6 | Hawks | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 68 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 94 | ||
Monday, April 18, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 87 | ||
| 7 | Raptors | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 85 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 84 | ||
Sunday, April 17, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 101 | ||
| 4 | Cavaliers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 91 | ||
| 11 | Heat | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 74 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 95 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 115 | ||
Saturday, April 16, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 100 | ||
| 7 | Raptors | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 101 | ||
| 6 | Hawks | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 78 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 70 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 108 | ||
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 36% | 101 | 88 |
| 10 | Celtics | 64% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 103 | ||
 | 28 | Nets | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Magic | 32% | 100 | 103 |
| 8 | Hornets | 68% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 60% | 105 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Bulls | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 59% | 103 | 96 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 41% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Rockets | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 54% | 103 | 97 |
 | 26 | Bucks | 46% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Pelicans | 109 | ||
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 8% | 96 | 104 |
| 1 | Warriors | 92% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Lakers | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 68% | 107 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Trail Blazers | 107 | ||
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Knicks | 90 | ||
| 15 | Pacers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 47% | 104 | 99 |
| 17 | Pistons | 53% | 105 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 98 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 26% | 100 | 98 |
| 2 | Spurs | 74% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 84 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 110 | ||
Monday, April 11, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 33% | 102 | 94 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 67% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 98 | ||
| 22 | Magic | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 37% | 104 | 114 |
| 10 | Celtics | 63% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 120 | ||
| 28 | Nets | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 52% | 109 | 129 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 48% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 121 | ||
| 21 | Pelicans | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 11% | 99 | 79 |
| 4 | Thunder | 89% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 101 | ||
| 11 | Jazz | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 52% | 111 | 105 |
| 27 | Suns | 48% | 110 | 101 |
Sunday, April 10, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 98 | ||
| 13 | Wizards | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 19% | 101 | 110 |
| 9 | Rockets | 81% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 91 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 49% | 103 | 109 |
| 29 | 76ers | 51% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Jazz | 100 | ||
| 20 | Nuggets | 84 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 21% | 97 | 105 |
| 16 | Pacers | 79% | 108 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 96 | ||
| 15 | Heat | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 47% | 105 | 92 |
| 2 | Spurs | 53% | 106 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 93 | ||
| 25 | Knicks | 89 | ||
Saturday, April 9, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 107 | ||
| 7 | Hawks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 45% | 105 | 121 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 55% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 100 | ||
| 19 | Grizzlies | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 63% | 108 | 102 |
| 17 | Bulls | 37% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 106 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 62% | 112 | 112 |
| 23 | Kings | 38% | 108 | 114 |
Friday, April 8, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 99 | ||
| 7 | Hornets | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 47% | 103 | 109 |
| 20 | Magic | 53% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 109 | ||
| 29 | 76ers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 25% | 100 | 109 |
| 10 | Celtics | 75% | 109 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 99 | ||
| 18 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 42% | 99 | 98 |
| 6 | Raptors | 58% | 102 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 102 | ||
| 21 | Pelicans | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 35% | 100 | 93 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 65% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 98 | ||
| 23 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 51% | 101 | 102 |
| 15 | Jazz | 49% | 100 | 99 |
Thursday, April 7, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 43% | 101 | 87 |
| 8 | Hawks | 57% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 98 | ||
| 11 | Heat | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 25% | 103 | 124 |
| 9 | Rockets | 75% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 105 | ||
| 22 | Kings | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 40% | 103 | 101 |
| 1 | Warriors | 60% | 107 | 112 |
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 45% | 101 | 109 |
| 16 | Pacers | 55% | 103 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 108 | ||
| 20 | Magic | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 23% | 98 | 103 |
| 11 | Wizards | 77% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 97 | ||
| 10 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 57% | 102 | 111 |
| 25 | Knicks | 43% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 86 | ||
| 13 | Mavericks | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 54% | 111 | 115 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 109 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 91 | ||
| 30 | Lakers | 81 | ||
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 93 | ||
| 29 | 76ers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 45% | 102 | 89 |
| 13 | Heat | 55% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 90 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 21% | 99 | 90 |
| 8 | Hawks | 79% | 111 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 92 | ||
| 19 | Grizzlies | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 74% | 109 | 109 |
| 25 | Bucks | 26% | 100 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 124 | ||
| 21 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 99 | 88 |
| 14 | Jazz | 36% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 115 | ||
| 22 | Kings | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 14% | 102 | 124 |
| 1 | Warriors | 86% | 117 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 81 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 103 | ||