Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, May 2, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Thunder | 98 | ||
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Sunday, May 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Raptors | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Hornets | 73 | ||
 | 12 | Heat | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Saturday, April 30, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 92 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 124 | ||
Friday, April 29, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 83 | ||
| 10 | Pacers | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 97 | ||
| 8 | Hornets | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Trail Blazers | 106 | ||
Thursday, April 28, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hawks | 104 | ||
 | 14 | Celtics | 92 | ||
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 90 | ||
| 12 | Heat | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 108 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 98 | ||
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 99 | ||
| 7 | Raptors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 83 | ||
| 6 | Hawks | 110 | ||
Monday, April 25, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 85 | ||
| 8 | Hornets | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Mavericks | 104 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 84 | ||
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 98 | ||
Sunday, April 24, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 100 | ||
 | 18 | Pistons | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hawks | 95 | ||
| 10 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 121 | ||
| 9 | Rockets | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 116 | ||
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Saturday, April 23, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 83 | ||
| 13 | Pacers | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 80 | ||
| 9 | Hornets | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 119 | ||
| 15 | Mavericks | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 88 | ||
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 96 | ||
Friday, April 22, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 101 | ||
| 17 | Pistons | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 103 | ||
| 11 | Celtics | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 96 | ||
| 22 | Grizzlies | 87 | ||
Thursday, April 21, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 101 | ||
| 15 | Pacers | 85 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 96 | ||
| 8 | Rockets | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 131 | ||
| 14 | Mavericks | 102 | ||
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 90 | ||
| 4 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 103 | ||
| 10 | Heat | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 81 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 102 | ||
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 72 | ||
| 6 | Hawks | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 68 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 94 | ||
Monday, April 18, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 87 | ||
| 7 | Raptors | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 85 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 84 | ||
Sunday, April 17, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 101 | ||
| 4 | Cavaliers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 91 | ||
| 11 | Heat | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 74 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 95 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 115 | ||
Saturday, April 16, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 100 | ||
| 7 | Raptors | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 101 | ||
| 6 | Hawks | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 78 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 70 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 108 | ||
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 36% | 101 | 88 |
| 10 | Celtics | 64% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 103 | ||
 | 28 | Nets | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Magic | 32% | 100 | 103 |
| 8 | Hornets | 68% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 60% | 105 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Bulls | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 59% | 103 | 96 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 41% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Rockets | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 54% | 103 | 97 |
 | 26 | Bucks | 46% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Pelicans | 109 | ||
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 8% | 96 | 104 |
| 1 | Warriors | 92% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Lakers | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 68% | 107 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Trail Blazers | 107 | ||
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Knicks | 90 | ||
| 15 | Pacers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 47% | 104 | 99 |
| 17 | Pistons | 53% | 105 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 98 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 26% | 100 | 98 |
| 2 | Spurs | 74% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 84 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 110 | ||
Monday, April 11, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 33% | 102 | 94 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 67% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 98 | ||
| 22 | Magic | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 37% | 104 | 114 |
| 10 | Celtics | 63% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 120 | ||
| 28 | Nets | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 52% | 109 | 129 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 48% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 121 | ||
| 21 | Pelicans | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 11% | 99 | 79 |
| 4 | Thunder | 89% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 101 | ||
| 11 | Jazz | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 52% | 111 | 105 |
| 27 | Suns | 48% | 110 | 101 |
Sunday, April 10, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 98 | ||
| 13 | Wizards | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 19% | 101 | 110 |
| 9 | Rockets | 81% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 91 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 49% | 103 | 109 |
| 29 | 76ers | 51% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Jazz | 100 | ||
| 20 | Nuggets | 84 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 21% | 97 | 105 |
| 16 | Pacers | 79% | 108 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 96 | ||
| 15 | Heat | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 47% | 105 | 92 |
| 2 | Spurs | 53% | 106 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 93 | ||
| 25 | Knicks | 89 | ||
Saturday, April 9, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 107 | ||
| 7 | Hawks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 45% | 105 | 121 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 55% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 100 | ||
| 19 | Grizzlies | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 63% | 108 | 102 |
| 17 | Bulls | 37% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 106 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 62% | 112 | 112 |
| 23 | Kings | 38% | 108 | 114 |
Friday, April 8, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 99 | ||
| 7 | Hornets | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 47% | 103 | 109 |
| 20 | Magic | 53% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 109 | ||
| 29 | 76ers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 25% | 100 | 109 |
| 10 | Celtics | 75% | 109 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 99 | ||
| 18 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 42% | 99 | 98 |
| 6 | Raptors | 58% | 102 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 102 | ||
| 21 | Pelicans | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 35% | 100 | 93 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 65% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 98 | ||
| 23 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 51% | 101 | 102 |
| 15 | Jazz | 49% | 100 | 99 |
Thursday, April 7, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 43% | 101 | 87 |
| 8 | Hawks | 57% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 98 | ||
| 11 | Heat | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 25% | 103 | 124 |
| 9 | Rockets | 75% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 105 | ||
| 22 | Kings | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 40% | 103 | 101 |
| 1 | Warriors | 60% | 107 | 112 |
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 45% | 101 | 109 |
| 16 | Pacers | 55% | 103 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 108 | ||
| 20 | Magic | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 23% | 98 | 103 |
| 11 | Wizards | 77% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 97 | ||
| 10 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 57% | 102 | 111 |
| 25 | Knicks | 43% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 86 | ||
| 13 | Mavericks | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 54% | 111 | 115 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 109 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 91 | ||
| 30 | Lakers | 81 | ||
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 93 | ||
| 29 | 76ers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 45% | 102 | 89 |
| 13 | Heat | 55% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 90 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 21% | 99 | 90 |
| 8 | Hawks | 79% | 111 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 92 | ||
| 19 | Grizzlies | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 74% | 109 | 109 |
| 25 | Bucks | 26% | 100 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 124 | ||
| 21 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 99 | 88 |
| 14 | Jazz | 36% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 115 | ||
| 22 | Kings | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 14% | 102 | 124 |
| 1 | Warriors | 86% | 117 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 81 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 103 | ||