Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, December 7, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Magic | 52% | 99 | 82 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Celtics | 51% | 95 | 94 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Nets | 63% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Bulls | 62% | 97 | 108 |
 | 25 | Pistons | 38% | 93 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 26 | Hornets | 33% | 92 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 16 | Timberwolves | 73% | 103 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bobcats | 30% | 95 | 93 |
 | 22 | Bucks | 70% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Raptors | 37% | 99 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Lakers | 31% | 97 | 108 |
 | 1 | Thunder | 69% | 103 | 114 |
Thursday, December 6, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Mavericks | 40% | 98 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Knicks | 36% | 98 | 112 |
 | 3 | Heat | 64% | 103 | 92 |
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Knicks | 78% | 105 | 100 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 22% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 13 | Pacers | 63% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Timberwolves | 38% | 94 | 94 |
| 15 | Celtics | 62% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 40% | 98 | 104 |
| 7 | Hawks | 60% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 49% | 101 | 104 |
| 24 | Pistons | 51% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 65% | 98 | 95 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 35% | 92 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 23% | 94 | 99 |
| 5 | Spurs | 77% | 104 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 36% | 97 | 81 |
| 14 | Jazz | 64% | 102 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 51% | 101 | 100 |
| 27 | Kings | 49% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Mavericks | 22% | 93 | 90 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 3 | Clippers | 78% | 103 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 57% | 100 | 103 |
| 26 | Hornets | 43% | 98 | 87 | |
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 47% | 102 | 105 |
| 10 | Rockets | 53% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 24% | 93 | 98 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 76% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 34% | 88 | 80 |
| 7 | Bulls | 66% | 93 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 56% | 99 | 117 |
| 12 | Nets | 44% | 97 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 81% | 103 | 101 |
| 28 | Wizards | 19% | 91 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Timberwolves | 44% | 95 | 105 |
| 17 | 76ers | 56% | 98 | 88 |
Monday, December 3, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 52% | 98 | 81 |
| 25 | Hornets | 48% | 97 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 102 | 118 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 42% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 41% | 99 | 79 |
| 24 | Pistons | 59% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 29% | 96 | 110 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 71% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Clippers | 60% | 102 | 105 |
| 15 | Jazz | 40% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 28% | 97 | 102 |
| 16 | Warriors | 72% | 104 | 94 |
Sunday, December 2, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 19% | 92 | 113 |
| 7 | Lakers | 81% | 104 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 21% | 94 | 99 |
| 4 | Knicks | 79% | 105 | 106 |
Saturday, December 1, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 41% | 95 | 92 |
| 15 | Warriors | 59% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 13% | 93 | 81 |
| 3 | Clippers | 87% | 108 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 36% | 97 | 77 |
| 20 | Mavericks | 64% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grizzlies | 36% | 96 | 95 |
| 5 | Spurs | 64% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 45% | 95 | 88 |
| 19 | Bucks | 55% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Jazz | 31% | 98 | 116 |
| 9 | Rockets | 69% | 104 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 65% | 100 | 100 |
| 23 | Hornets | 35% | 95 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 30% | 90 | 88 |
| 10 | Bulls | 70% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 100 | 118 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 53% | 101 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 22% | 93 | 89 |
| 1 | Heat | 78% | 104 | 102 |
Friday, November 30, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 36% | 97 | 103 |
| 7 | Lakers | 64% | 102 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 58% | 96 | 97 |
| 26 | Kings | 42% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Suns | 40% | 98 | 97 |
| 22 | Raptors | 60% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 65% | 99 | 104 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 35% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 61% | 98 | 98 |
| 27 | Magic | 39% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 96 | 78 |
| 13 | Celtics | 65% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 16% | 89 | 87 |
| 4 | Knicks | 84% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 22% | 93 | 113 |
| 11 | Hawks | 78% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 24% | 92 | 78 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 76% | 102 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jazz | 26% | 94 | 94 |
| 2 | Thunder | 74% | 102 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 40% | 98 | 85 |
| 14 | Timberwolves | 60% | 102 | 95 |
Thursday, November 29, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 54% | 102 | 105 |
| 18 | Warriors | 46% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 31% | 98 | 100 |
| 1 | Heat | 69% | 105 | 105 |
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Timberwolves | 23% | 96 | 95 |
| 4 | Clippers | 77% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 98 | 82 |
| 28 | Wizards | 47% | 97 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 70% | 103 | 110 |
| 26 | Magic | 30% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 42% | 96 | 95 |
| 12 | Celtics | 58% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 16% | 91 | 91 |
| 7 | Hawks | 84% | 105 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 42% | 100 | 77 |
| 25 | Pistons | 58% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 24% | 91 | 78 |
| 10 | Bulls | 76% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Knicks | 59% | 101 | 102 |
| 15 | Bucks | 41% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 20% | 92 | 82 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 80% | 103 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 52% | 99 | 96 |
| 22 | Hornets | 48% | 98 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 29% | 95 | 98 |
| 5 | Thunder | 71% | 103 | 120 |
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Timberwolves | 56% | 101 | 97 |
| 27 | Kings | 44% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 37% | 94 | 98 |
| 18 | 76ers | 63% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 52% | 102 | 91 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 48% | 101 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 34% | 98 | 101 |
| 11 | Rockets | 66% | 104 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 31% | 92 | 79 |
| 7 | Lakers | 69% | 99 | 77 |
Monday, November 26, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Knicks | 55% | 100 | 89 |
| 13 | Nets | 45% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 70% | 100 | 118 |
| 28 | Wizards | 30% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 99 | 101 |
| 27 | Pistons | 54% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 36% | 96 | 93 |
| 10 | Bulls | 64% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 18% | 93 | 78 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 82% | 105 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 15% | 93 | 69 |
| 3 | Thunder | 85% | 107 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 45% | 98 | 103 |
| 15 | Jazz | 55% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 14% | 91 | 105 | |
| 5 | Clippers | 86% | 105 | 98 |
Sunday, November 25, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 26% | 95 | 84 | |
| 9 | Nuggets | 74% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 58% | 97 | 116 |
| 25 | Magic | 42% | 95 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 40% | 96 | 101 |
| 18 | 76ers | 60% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 97 | 85 |
| 13 | Nets | 67% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 17% | 93 | 100 |
| 4 | Knicks | 83% | 106 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 65% | 104 | 111 |
| 20 | Raptors | 35% | 99 | 106 |
Saturday, November 24, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 34% | 94 | 108 |
| 27 | Wizards | 66% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 46% | 97 | 93 |
| 8 | Hawks | 54% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 10% | 92 | 108 |
| 1 | Heat | 90% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 53% | 99 | 115 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 47% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bulls | 48% | 99 | 93 |
| 13 | Bucks | 52% | 100 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jazz | 57% | 100 | 97 |
| 26 | Kings | 43% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Timberwolves | 45% | 100 | 85 |
| 20 | Warriors | 55% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 55% | 97 | 116 |
| 18 | 76ers | 45% | 95 | 109 |