Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, January 30, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 60% | 90 | 86 |
 | 13 | Pistons | 40% | 86 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Heat | 38% | 96 | 103 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Bucks | 33% | 92 | 96 |
 | 14 | Raptors | 67% | 98 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 37% | 95 | 88 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 69% | 106 | 132 |
 | 22 | Timberwolves | 31% | 99 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Bobcats | 21% | 88 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Thunder | 22% | 95 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 8 | Hornets | 74% | 104 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Bulls | 54% | 102 | 109 |
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Thursday, January 29, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 40% | 92 | 88 |
 | 3 | Magic | 60% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, January 28, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 43% | 98 | 99 |
| 19 | Pacers | 57% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 9% | 88 | 100 |
| 1 | Celtics | 91% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 36% | 91 | 71 |
| 23 | Heat | 64% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 49% | 97 | 107 |
| 21 | Nets | 51% | 98 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 49% | 101 | 104 |
 | 18 | Knicks | 51% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 55% | 95 | 98 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 45% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 39% | 93 | 81 |
| 9 | Hornets | 61% | 97 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 28 | Thunder | 63% | 97 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 32% | 90 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 29% | 101 | 93 |
 | 8 | Mavericks | 71% | 109 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bobcats | 24% | 86 | 74 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 11 | Trail Blazers | 76% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 60% | 98 | 95 |
| 30 | Clippers | 40% | 94 | 75 |
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 14% | 89 | 110 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 86% | 104 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 25% | 96 | 111 |
| 3 | Magic | 75% | 105 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 74% | 100 | 100 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 26% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 47% | 94 | 106 |
| 12 | Jazz | 53% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bobcats | 20% | 90 | 117 |
| 2 | Lakers | 80% | 101 | 110 |
Monday, January 26, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 58% | 101 | 103 |
| 26 | Wizards | 42% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 47% | 94 | 79 |
| 24 | Heat | 53% | 95 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 54% | 101 | 98 |
| 20 | Knicks | 46% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 39% | 97 | 90 |
| 25 | Bucks | 61% | 101 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 37% | 90 | 86 |
| 11 | Hornets | 63% | 94 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 59% | 99 | 85 | |
| 28 | Thunder | 41% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 76% | 98 | 113 |
| 30 | Clippers | 24% | 89 | 88 |
Sunday, January 25, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 26% | 90 | 100 |
| 1 | Celtics | 74% | 99 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 33% | 94 | 85 |
| 2 | Lakers | 67% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 44% | 99 | 104 |
| 15 | Hawks | 56% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 26% | 96 | 97 |
| 16 | Raptors | 74% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 49% | 89 | 108 |
| 13 | Pistons | 51% | 90 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bobcats | 39% | 94 | 93 |
| 14 | Pacers | 61% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 45% | 99 | 108 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 55% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 32% | 97 | 97 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 68% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Clippers | 25% | 96 | 92 |
| 18 | Warriors | 75% | 105 | 107 |
Saturday, January 24, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 29% | 97 | 110 |
| 14 | 76ers | 71% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 69% | 98 | 97 |
| 25 | Heat | 31% | 91 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 55% | 95 | 99 | |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 45% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 35% | 100 | 104 |
| 21 | Bucks | 65% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 47% | 94 | 102 |
| 9 | Jazz | 53% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 25% | 90 | 87 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 75% | 99 | 100 |
Friday, January 23, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 57% | 97 | 76 |
| 21 | Bobcats | 43% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 44% | 91 | 112 |
| 12 | Pistons | 56% | 93 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 51% | 100 | 102 |
| 16 | Pacers | 49% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 38% | 97 | 87 |
| 15 | Hawks | 62% | 101 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 33% | 96 | 88 |
| 22 | Knicks | 67% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 62% | 98 | 108 | |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 38% | 94 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 46% | 96 | 114 |
| 20 | Bulls | 54% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 23% | 89 | 91 | |
| 5 | Spurs | 77% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 67% | 103 | 106 |
| 18 | Warriors | 33% | 97 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 47% | 93 | 104 |
| 30 | Clippers | 53% | 94 | 107 |
Thursday, January 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 37% | 91 | 90 |
| 3 | Magic | 63% | 96 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 12% | 93 | 97 |
| 1 | Lakers | 88% | 108 | 117 |
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 33% | 87 | 86 |
| 22 | Bobcats | 67% | 93 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 36% | 89 | 76 |
| 12 | Pistons | 64% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 64% | 94 | 98 |
| 18 | Heat | 36% | 89 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 58% | 107 | 109 |
| 24 | Knicks | 42% | 104 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 55% | 100 | 99 |
| 21 | Bucks | 45% | 99 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 21% | 90 | 92 | |
| 5 | Hornets | 79% | 100 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 37% | 94 | 99 |
| 11 | Rockets | 63% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 56% | 91 | 104 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 89 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 47% | 99 | 110 |
| 26 | Kings | 53% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 29% | 101 | 122 |
| 20 | Warriors | 71% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 84% | 104 | 108 |
| 30 | Clippers | 16% | 91 | 97 |
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 46% | 96 | 105 |
| 19 | Bulls | 54% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 27% | 94 | 81 |
| 6 | Spurs | 73% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 24% | 97 | 99 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 76% | 106 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 21% | 95 | 107 |
| 8 | Jazz | 79% | 105 | 112 |
Monday, January 19, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 47% | 102 | 98 |
| 23 | Knicks | 53% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 49% | 96 | 95 |
| 16 | 76ers | 51% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 33% | 93 | 84 |
| 14 | Hawks | 67% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 62% | 91 | 86 |
| 24 | Bobcats | 38% | 87 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 45% | 95 | 113 |
| 11 | Rockets | 55% | 96 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 55% | 96 | 94 |
| 29 | Clippers | 45% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 29% | 96 | 100 |
| 5 | Hornets | 71% | 103 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 36% | 101 | 98 |
| 21 | Warriors | 64% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 67% | 93 | 87 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 33% | 87 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 26% | 95 | 87 |
| 2 | Celtics | 74% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 37% | 94 | 85 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 38% | 95 | 88 |
| 1 | Lakers | 62% | 99 | 105 |
Sunday, January 18, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 54% | 101 | 117 |
| 17 | Raptors | 46% | 100 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Heat | 54% | 95 | 104 |
| 29 | Thunder | 46% | 94 | 94 |
Saturday, January 17, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 69% | 99 | 105 |
| 20 | Nets | 31% | 93 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 91 | 97 |
| 24 | Bobcats | 44% | 89 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hornets | 52% | 90 | 91 | |
| 12 | Pistons | 48% | 89 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 47% | 100 | 107 |
| 23 | Knicks | 53% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 54% | 95 | 92 |
| 21 | Bulls | 46% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 35% | 90 | 86 |
| 11 | Rockets | 65% | 95 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 38% | 97 | 108 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 62% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 43% | 97 | 106 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 57% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 58% | 96 | 92 |
| 30 | Clippers | 42% | 93 | 101 |