Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Bobcats | 27% | 91 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Celtics | 52% | 92 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Magic | 34% | 88 | 88 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Mavericks | 42% | 93 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Timberwolves | 51% | 99 | 90 |
| 24 | Hornets | 49% | 98 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Bucks | 67% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Lakers | 49% | 100 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, April 6, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Thunder | 58% | 100 | 98 |
| 16 | Pacers | 42% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 23 | Raptors | 68% | 102 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 21 | Nets | 70% | 101 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Pistons | 23% | 88 | 96 |
| 17 | Hawks | 77% | 98 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 27% | 91 | 97 |
 | 1 | Heat | 73% | 99 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 14% | 92 | 90 |
| 11 | Bucks | 86% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 95 | 99 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 70% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 18% | 90 | 103 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 43% | 105 | 99 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 57% | 107 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 32% | 98 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5 | Lakers | 68% | 102 | 107 |
Thursday, April 5, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Knicks | 54% | 97 | 96 |
| 19 | Magic | 46% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 42% | 95 | 94 |
| 28 | Pistons | 58% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 32% | 86 | 86 |
 | 5 | Bulls | 68% | 92 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 59% | 103 | 93 |
| 24 | Kings | 41% | 100 | 85 |
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 22% | 88 | 99 |
| 9 | 76ers | 78% | 99 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 57% | 98 | 109 |
| 26 | Wizards | 43% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 43% | 92 | 87 |
| 10 | Celtics | 57% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 16% | 88 | 93 |
| 17 | Hawks | 84% | 101 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 42% | 96 | 93 |
| 1 | Heat | 58% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 14% | 94 | 98 |
| 11 | Bucks | 86% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 59% | 101 | 92 |
| 27 | Hornets | 41% | 98 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Warriors | 35% | 100 | 97 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 65% | 105 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 35% | 92 | 85 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 65% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 41% | 100 | 107 |
| 18 | Jazz | 59% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 33% | 97 | 88 | |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 38% | 96 | 113 |
| 6 | Clippers | 62% | 100 | 108 |
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 30% | 95 | 87 |
| 23 | Raptors | 70% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 105 | 125 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 21% | 94 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 51% | 99 | 104 |
| 13 | Pacers | 49% | 98 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 39% | 89 | 93 |
| 5 | Heat | 61% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 63% | 93 | 95 |
| 28 | Pistons | 37% | 89 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 28% | 94 | 94 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 72% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 60% | 105 | 109 |
| 24 | Kings | 40% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 24% | 93 | 87 | |
| 3 | Lakers | 76% | 103 | 91 |
Monday, April 2, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 65% | 103 | 112 |
| 25 | Wizards | 35% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rockets | 26% | 90 | 99 |
| 3 | Bulls | 74% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 34% | 94 | 94 |
| 1 | Thunder | 66% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 40% | 95 | 94 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 60% | 98 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 43% | 104 | 108 |
| 23 | Kings | 57% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 49% | 101 | 102 |
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 102 | 97 |
Sunday, April 1, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bulls | 41% | 94 | 78 |
| 2 | Thunder | 59% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 58% | 92 | 72 |
| 10 | Celtics | 42% | 89 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 42% | 96 | 92 |
| 25 | Raptors | 58% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 40% | 101 | 104 |
| 16 | Magic | 60% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 38% | 95 | 104 |
| 13 | Rockets | 62% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 23% | 92 | 75 | |
| 14 | Suns | 77% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 45% | 102 | 106 |
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 104 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 21% | 93 | 112 |
| 5 | Lakers | 79% | 104 | 120 |
Saturday, March 31, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 18% | 88 | 85 | |
| 5 | Lakers | 82% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 14% | 92 | 75 |
| 6 | Knicks | 86% | 107 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 37% | 88 | 90 |
| 11 | 76ers | 63% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 34% | 92 | 107 |
| 28 | Pistons | 66% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 43% | 97 | 99 |
| 10 | Bucks | 57% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 31% | 95 | 103 |
| 4 | Spurs | 69% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 42% | 101 | 111 | |
| 23 | Kings | 58% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 30% | 95 | 96 |
| 7 | Clippers | 70% | 102 | 105 |
Friday, March 30, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 75% | 101 | 113 |
| 25 | Raptors | 25% | 92 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 70% | 97 | 76 |
| 24 | Wizards | 30% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 72% | 106 | 99 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 28% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 53% | 96 | 90 |
| 19 | Hawks | 47% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 66% | 103 | 121 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 34% | 98 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 42% | 93 | 100 |
| 9 | Magic | 58% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 14% | 86 | 71 |
| 3 | Bulls | 86% | 100 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 44% | 96 | 89 |
| 14 | Rockets | 56% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 53% | 96 | 100 |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 47% | 95 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 35% | 101 | 104 |
| 18 | Jazz | 65% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 94 | 97 |
| 8 | Clippers | 75% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 46% | 99 | 102 | |
| 26 | Warriors | 54% | 101 | 100 |
Thursday, March 29, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 30% | 93 | 89 |
| 16 | Pacers | 70% | 100 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 31% | 91 | 85 |
| 1 | Heat | 69% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 30% | 91 | 93 | |
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 46% | 98 | 102 |
| 5 | Lakers | 54% | 99 | 93 |
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 56% | 102 | 96 |
| 24 | Raptors | 44% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 42% | 96 | 86 |
| 7 | Knicks | 58% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 62% | 103 | 88 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 38% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 49% | 97 | 87 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 51% | 98 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 39% | 92 | 82 |
| 11 | Celtics | 61% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 57% | 99 | 84 |
| 23 | Nets | 43% | 96 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bulls | 60% | 93 | 98 |
| 18 | Hawks | 40% | 89 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 60% | 106 | 117 |
| 21 | Kings | 40% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 33% | 96 | 86 |
| 9 | Clippers | 67% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 47% | 95 | 102 | |
| 26 | Warriors | 53% | 96 | 87 |
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 19% | 88 | 85 |
| 11 | 76ers | 81% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 44% | 95 | 101 |
| 13 | Bucks | 56% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 32% | 97 | 86 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 68% | 104 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Rockets | 24% | 92 | 81 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 76% | 102 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 52% | 102 | 107 |
| 15 | Suns | 48% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 63% | 102 | 109 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 69% | 102 | 104 |
| 26 | Warriors | 31% | 96 | 101 |
Monday, March 26, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 62% | 97 | 117 |
| 23 | Raptors | 38% | 93 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 42% | 95 | 79 |
| 25 | Wizards | 58% | 98 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 71% | 95 | 102 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 29% | 88 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 59% | 97 | 90 |
| 16 | Pacers | 41% | 94 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 46% | 100 | 105 |
| 22 | Nets | 54% | 101 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 34% | 99 | 80 |
| 6 | Knicks | 66% | 105 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 20% | 93 | 108 |
| 3 | Bulls | 80% | 104 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 33% | 99 | 106 |
| 19 | Rockets | 67% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 25% | 90 | 85 | |
| 9 | Clippers | 75% | 99 | 97 |
Sunday, March 25, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 59% | 103 | 108 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 41% | 100 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 49% | 106 | 100 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 51% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 20% | 87 | 76 |
| 11 | Celtics | 80% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 41% | 94 | 133 |
| 16 | Hawks | 59% | 97 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 45% | 95 | 76 |
| 7 | Spurs | 55% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 48% | 98 | 87 |
| 3 | Thunder | 52% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 30% | 97 | 87 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 31% | 93 | 102 |
| 5 | Lakers | 69% | 100 | 96 |