Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 59% | 103 | 108 | |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 41% | 100 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 49% | 106 | 100 | |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 51% | 107 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 20% | 87 | 76 | |
| 11 | Celtics | 80% | 98 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 41% | 94 | 133 | |
| 16 | Hawks | 59% | 97 | 139 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 45% | 95 | 76 | |
| 7 | Spurs | 55% | 96 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 48% | 98 | 87 | |
| 3 | Thunder | 52% | 99 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 30% | 97 | 87 | |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 104 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 31% | 93 | 102 | |
| 5 | Lakers | 69% | 100 | 96 | |
Saturday, March 24, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 46% | 96 | 85 | |
| 13 | Clippers | 54% | 98 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 54% | 95 | 95 | |
| 24 | Wizards | 46% | 93 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 25% | 94 | 89 | |
| 22 | Nets | 75% | 102 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 16% | 92 | 79 | |
| 6 | Knicks | 84% | 105 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 14% | 87 | 101 | |
| 2 | Bulls | 86% | 101 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spurs | 57% | 96 | 89 | |
| 27 | Hornets | 43% | 93 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 52% | 97 | 101 | |
| 19 | Rockets | 48% | 96 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 37% | 97 | 125 | |
| 11 | Bucks | 63% | 101 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 43% | 102 | 108 | |
| 26 | Warriors | 57% | 104 | 111 | |
Friday, March 23, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 67% | 103 | 79 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 33% | 97 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 69% | 103 | 112 | |
| 30 | Bobcats | 31% | 97 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 21% | 92 | 80 | |
| 7 | Magic | 79% | 103 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 45% | 97 | 113 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 55% | 98 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 30% | 90 | 84 | |
| 15 | Hawks | 70% | 97 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 80% | 103 | 88 | |
| 29 | Pistons | 20% | 91 | 73 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 32% | 84 | 86 | |
| 9 | 76ers | 68% | 91 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 22% | 96 | 140 | |
| 3 | Thunder | 78% | 106 | 149 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 44% | 97 | 87 | |
| 8 | Spurs | 56% | 99 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 53% | 104 | 102 | |
| 20 | Jazz | 47% | 103 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 93 | 96 | |
| 6 | Lakers | 75% | 102 | 103 | |
Thursday, March 22, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 64% | 99 | 85 | |
| 26 | Wizards | 36% | 94 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 46% | 95 | 100 | |
| 12 | Bucks | 54% | 96 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clippers | 59% | 95 | 90 | |
| 27 | Hornets | 41% | 92 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 31% | 97 | 83 | |
| 18 | Rockets | 69% | 103 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 49% | 103 | 103 | |
| 21 | Kings | 51% | 104 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 53% | 98 | 93 | |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 97 | 97 | |
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 76% | 99 | 94 | |
| 25 | Raptors | 24% | 89 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 37% | 94 | 82 | |
| 9 | 76ers | 63% | 98 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 30% | 94 | 93 | |
| 6 | Magic | 70% | 101 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 38% | 96 | 108 | |
| 23 | Nets | 62% | 100 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 28% | 92 | 102 | |
| 16 | Hawks | 72% | 100 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 47% | 95 | 101 | |
| 26 | Hornets | 53% | 96 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 30% | 95 | 91 | |
| 4 | Thunder | 70% | 102 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 23% | 97 | 100 | |
| 3 | Spurs | 77% | 107 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 24% | 98 | 115 | |
| 11 | Nuggets | 76% | 107 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 33% | 92 | 109 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 67% | 98 | 93 | |
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 49% | 97 | 89 | |
| 18 | Pacers | 51% | 98 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 23% | 95 | 87 | |
| 8 | Knicks | 77% | 104 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 20% | 94 | 95 | |
| 1 | Heat | 80% | 105 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 58% | 98 | 104 | |
| 20 | Rockets | 42% | 95 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 61% | 102 | 90 | |
| 19 | Jazz | 39% | 99 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 63% | 102 | 110 | |
| 24 | Kings | 37% | 97 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 45% | 100 | 116 | |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 102 | 87 | |
Monday, March 19, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 79% | 98 | 105 | |
| 30 | Bobcats | 21% | 87 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 35% | 96 | 105 | |
| 23 | Nets | 65% | 101 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 52% | 90 | 79 | |
| 16 | Hawks | 48% | 89 | 76 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 51% | 94 | 85 | |
| 6 | Magic | 49% | 93 | 59 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 48% | 100 | 112 | |
| 13 | Nuggets | 52% | 101 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 40% | 102 | 97 | |
| 22 | Warriors | 60% | 105 | 93 | |
Sunday, March 18, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 62% | 98 | 103 | |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 38% | 94 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 28% | 95 | 83 | |
| 12 | Clippers | 72% | 103 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 20% | 91 | 92 | |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 80% | 102 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 51% | 104 | 99 | |
| 24 | Kings | 49% | 103 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Magic | 28% | 93 | 81 | |
| 1 | Heat | 72% | 100 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 34% | 97 | 86 | |
| 15 | Suns | 66% | 103 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 96 | 95 | |
| 4 | Thunder | 74% | 104 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 23% | 92 | 103 | |
| 6 | Lakers | 77% | 102 | 99 | |
Saturday, March 17, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Rockets | 31% | 95 | 91 | |
| 9 | Clippers | 69% | 101 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 54% | 97 | 103 | |
| 30 | Bobcats | 46% | 96 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 48% | 98 | 102 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 52% | 99 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 48% | 91 | 102 | |
| 25 | Nets | 52% | 92 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 33% | 88 | 80 | |
| 2 | Bulls | 67% | 94 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 42% | 96 | 99 | |
| 7 | Mavericks | 58% | 99 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 35% | 96 | 91 | |
| 10 | Nuggets | 65% | 101 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 35% | 99 | 92 | |
| 20 | Jazz | 65% | 104 | 99 | |
Friday, March 16, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 56% | 95 | 84 | |
| 12 | 76ers | 44% | 93 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 18% | 90 | 70 | |
| 6 | Magic | 82% | 103 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 36% | 96 | 100 | |
| 11 | Knicks | 64% | 101 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 20% | 91 | 88 | |
| 14 | Hawks | 80% | 102 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 24% | 92 | 100 | |
| 2 | Bulls | 76% | 101 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 26% | 92 | 114 | |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 74% | 100 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 42% | 98 | 114 | |
| 4 | Thunder | 58% | 101 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 33% | 97 | 101 | |
| 16 | Suns | 67% | 103 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 67% | 100 | 95 | |
| 26 | Kings | 33% | 94 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 20% | 95 | 92 | |
| 3 | Lakers | 80% | 106 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 48% | 101 | 120 | |
| 21 | Warriors | 52% | 102 | 98 | |
Thursday, March 15, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 40% | 93 | 99 | |
| 24 | Hornets | 60% | 96 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 10% | 86 | 96 | |
| 7 | Mavericks | 90% | 103 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 45% | 104 | 103 | |
| 9 | Nuggets | 55% | 105 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 45% | 103 | 105 | |
| 19 | Jazz | 55% | 104 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 34% | 97 | 91 | |
| 10 | Clippers | 66% | 102 | 87 | |
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 58% | 93 | 94 | |
| 18 | Pacers | 42% | 90 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 42% | 96 | 84 | |
| 28 | Nets | 58% | 99 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 98 | 79 | |
| 12 | Knicks | 63% | 102 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 41% | 94 | 102 | |
| 2 | Bulls | 59% | 97 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 25% | 98 | 105 | |
| 17 | Bucks | 75% | 107 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 66% | 94 | 107 | |
| 25 | Hornets | 34% | 89 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 28% | 94 | 87 | |
| 20 | Rockets | 72% | 101 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 32% | 94 | 111 | |
| 4 | Spurs | 68% | 100 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 46% | 99 | 124 | |
| 23 | Kings | 54% | 100 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 38% | 99 | 111 | |
| 15 | Suns | 62% | 103 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 32% | 92 | 82 | |
| 8 | Clippers | 68% | 99 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 64% | 97 | 105 | |
| 22 | Warriors | 36% | 92 | 103 | |
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 59% | 97 | 98 | |
| 12 | Magic | 41% | 94 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 42% | 97 | 96 | |
| 24 | Cavaliers | 58% | 100 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 97 | 75 | |
| 18 | Pacers | 49% | 96 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 51% | 94 | 116 | |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 49% | 93 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 24% | 95 | 104 | |
| 5 | Thunder | 76% | 105 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 14% | 91 | 98 | |
| 11 | Mavericks | 86% | 105 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 35% | 96 | 117 | |
| 6 | Nuggets | 65% | 101 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 53% | 102 | 115 | |
| 23 | Kings | 47% | 101 | 89 | |
Monday, March 12, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bucks | 56% | 102 | 105 | |
| 27 | Nets | 44% | 100 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 24% | 94 | 99 | |
| 2 | Bulls | 76% | 103 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 31% | 91 | 73 | |
| 25 | Hornets | 69% | 97 | 71 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 14% | 94 | 97 | |
| 3 | Spurs | 86% | 108 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 33% | 96 | 90 | |
| 20 | Jazz | 67% | 102 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 34% | 101 | 127 | |
| 15 | Suns | 66% | 106 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 38% | 91 | 94 | |
| 7 | Clippers | 62% | 95 | 85 | |