Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Heat | 58% | 96 | 98 |
 | 12 | Magic | 42% | 94 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Raptors | 42% | 97 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Lakers | 51% | 95 | 116 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Thunder | 76% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Mavericks | 86% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Monday, March 12, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bucks | 55% | 102 | 105 |
| 27 | Nets | 45% | 100 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Knicks | 24% | 94 | 99 |
 | 2 | Bulls | 76% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bobcats | 31% | 91 | 73 |
| 25 | Hornets | 69% | 97 | 71 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 14% | 94 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Pistons | 33% | 96 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Timberwolves | 34% | 101 | 127 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Celtics | 38% | 91 | 94 |
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Sunday, March 11, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Knicks | 53% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 31% | 88 | 94 |
| 3 | Lakers | 69% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 62% | 101 | 105 |
| 28 | Raptors | 38% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 30% | 91 | 94 |
| 6 | Magic | 70% | 98 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 45% | 99 | 107 |
| 24 | Cavaliers | 55% | 101 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 34% | 97 | 94 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 66% | 103 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 58% | 98 | 106 |
| 23 | Kings | 42% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 24% | 95 | 97 |
| 8 | Clippers | 76% | 105 | 93 |
Saturday, March 10, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 102 | 110 |
| 29 | Wizards | 34% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 26% | 92 | 91 |
| 1 | Heat | 74% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 53% | 98 | 86 |
| 28 | Pistons | 47% | 97 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 57% | 99 | 112 |
| 26 | Nets | 43% | 97 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 16% | 90 | 97 |
| 2 | Bulls | 84% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 11% | 90 | 95 |
| 5 | Thunder | 89% | 107 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 35% | 94 | 95 | |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 65% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 46% | 97 | 91 |
| 14 | Suns | 54% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 56% | 98 | 87 |
| 20 | Warriors | 44% | 96 | 111 |
Friday, March 9, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 28% | 91 | 91 |
| 11 | 76ers | 72% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 53% | 100 | 83 | |
| 30 | Bobcats | 47% | 98 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 93 | 86 |
| 14 | Celtics | 51% | 94 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 63% | 97 | 85 |
| 28 | Pistons | 37% | 92 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 17% | 95 | 96 |
| 3 | Thunder | 83% | 108 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 59% | 99 | 105 |
| 19 | Timberwolves | 41% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 51% | 104 | 114 |
| 18 | Bucks | 49% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 39% | 96 | 120 |
| 8 | Spurs | 61% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 22% | 94 | 97 | |
| 9 | Nuggets | 78% | 104 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 65% | 101 | 97 |
| 24 | Kings | 35% | 96 | 110 |
Thursday, March 8, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Magic | 33% | 91 | 99 |
| 1 | Bulls | 67% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 56% | 99 | 94 |
| 15 | Suns | 44% | 97 | 96 |
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rockets | 54% | 97 | 98 |
| 24 | Raptors | 46% | 96 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 36% | 88 | 71 |
| 11 | 76ers | 64% | 92 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 74% | 102 | 101 |
| 29 | Wizards | 26% | 93 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 70% | 102 | 99 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 30% | 95 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 22% | 87 | 86 |
| 2 | Heat | 78% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 73% | 103 | 100 |
| 27 | Nets | 27% | 94 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls | 67% | 100 | 106 |
| 20 | Bucks | 33% | 94 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 29% | 97 | 104 |
| 3 | Thunder | 71% | 105 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 57% | 101 | 94 |
| 19 | Timberwolves | 43% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 28% | 97 | 105 |
| 5 | Spurs | 72% | 104 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 22% | 99 | 100 |
| 12 | Nuggets | 78% | 109 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 42% | 95 | 98 | |
| 23 | Kings | 58% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 57% | 97 | 110 |
| 22 | Warriors | 43% | 95 | 92 |
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Magic | 76% | 101 | 84 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 24% | 92 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hawks | 43% | 90 | 101 |
| 15 | Pacers | 57% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rockets | 35% | 92 | 92 |
| 10 | Celtics | 65% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 12% | 92 | 78 | |
| 1 | Heat | 88% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 74% | 101 | 85 |
| 28 | Pistons | 26% | 93 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 38% | 96 | 85 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 62% | 100 | 95 |
Monday, March 5, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 69% | 98 | 92 |
| 24 | Raptors | 31% | 92 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 52% | 101 | 120 |
| 29 | Wizards | 48% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 55% | 101 | 109 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 45% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 26% | 90 | 72 |
| 2 | Bulls | 74% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 52% | 96 | 93 |
| 20 | Bucks | 48% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 41% | 96 | 91 |
| 3 | Thunder | 59% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 47% | 99 | 94 |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 53% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 22% | 100 | 116 |
| 12 | Nuggets | 78% | 110 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 19% | 89 | 74 | |
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 81% | 101 | 86 |
Sunday, March 4, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 45% | 94 | 111 |
| 14 | Celtics | 55% | 96 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 51% | 97 | 83 |
| 4 | Lakers | 49% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 48% | 97 | 75 |
| 25 | Raptors | 52% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 60% | 102 | 104 | |
| 30 | Bobcats | 40% | 98 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 52% | 93 | 96 |
| 9 | 76ers | 48% | 92 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 51% | 100 | 105 |
| 16 | Rockets | 49% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 29% | 98 | 88 |
| 15 | Suns | 71% | 106 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 35% | 100 | 99 |
| 7 | Spurs | 65% | 105 | 94 |
Saturday, March 3, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 45% | 99 | 98 |
| 29 | Wizards | 55% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 63% | 96 | 90 |
| 18 | Hawks | 37% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 25% | 93 | 98 |
| 7 | Magic | 75% | 103 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 25% | 91 | 83 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 75% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 63% | 94 | 102 |
| 26 | Hornets | 37% | 89 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 23% | 91 | 96 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 77% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 27% | 96 | 122 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 73% | 105 | 110 |
Friday, March 2, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 63% | 96 | 102 |
| 25 | Raptors | 37% | 91 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 26% | 90 | 94 | |
| 13 | Celtics | 74% | 98 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 40% | 93 | 94 |
| 18 | Hawks | 60% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 79% | 103 | 112 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 21% | 92 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 26% | 91 | 83 |
| 9 | 76ers | 74% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 70% | 94 | 92 |
| 26 | Hornets | 30% | 87 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 43% | 101 | 117 |
| 16 | Rockets | 57% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 14% | 92 | 72 |
| 11 | Spurs | 86% | 107 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 66% | 101 | 98 |
| 20 | Jazz | 34% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 48% | 99 | 78 |
| 15 | Suns | 52% | 100 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 18% | 92 | 107 |
| 4 | Lakers | 82% | 105 | 115 |
Thursday, March 1, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 43% | 97 | 105 |
| 7 | Magic | 57% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 31% | 98 | 95 |
| 14 | Suns | 69% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 66% | 104 | 108 |
| 24 | Kings | 34% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 55% | 100 | 107 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 98 | 93 |
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 51% | 96 | 92 |
| 10 | 76ers | 49% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 75% | 101 | 102 |
| 29 | Wizards | 25% | 92 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 32% | 90 | 96 |
| 11 | Celtics | 68% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 18% | 94 | 103 |
| 9 | Knicks | 82% | 106 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 29% | 92 | 85 |
| 16 | Hawks | 71% | 100 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 42% | 97 | 94 |
| 28 | Pistons | 58% | 99 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 47% | 93 | 85 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 53% | 94 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 40% | 89 | 95 |
| 25 | Hornets | 60% | 92 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 54% | 97 | 96 |
| 13 | Spurs | 46% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 102 | 95 |
| 18 | Nuggets | 45% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 55% | 100 | 83 |
| 23 | Jazz | 45% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 19% | 90 | 85 |
| 4 | Lakers | 81% | 102 | 104 |