Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bobcats | 29% | 95 | 87 |
 | 23 | Raptors | 71% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Knicks | 51% | 99 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Heat | 61% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Magic | 63% | 94 | 95 |
 | 28 | Pistons | 37% | 89 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 24% | 94 | 87 | |
 | 3 | Lakers | 76% | 103 | 91 |
Monday, April 2, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Bucks | 65% | 103 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Bulls | 74% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 33% | 94 | 94 |
 | 1 | Thunder | 67% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Mavericks | 59% | 98 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Timberwolves | 43% | 104 | 108 |
| 23 | Kings | 57% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, April 1, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bulls | 41% | 95 | 78 |
| 2 | Thunder | 59% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 59% | 92 | 72 |
 | 10 | Celtics | 41% | 89 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 43% | 96 | 92 |
| 25 | Raptors | 57% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 16 | Magic | 60% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 38% | 95 | 104 |
| 13 | Rockets | 62% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 23% | 92 | 75 | |
| 14 | Suns | 77% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 45% | 102 | 106 |
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 104 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 21% | 94 | 112 |
| 5 | Lakers | 79% | 105 | 120 |
Saturday, March 31, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 18% | 88 | 85 | |
| 5 | Lakers | 82% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 14% | 92 | 75 |
| 6 | Knicks | 86% | 107 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | 76ers | 64% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 34% | 92 | 107 |
| 28 | Pistons | 66% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 42% | 97 | 99 |
| 10 | Bucks | 58% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 31% | 95 | 103 |
| 4 | Spurs | 69% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 42% | 101 | 111 | |
| 23 | Kings | 58% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 30% | 95 | 96 |
| 7 | Clippers | 70% | 102 | 105 |
Friday, March 30, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 75% | 101 | 113 |
| 25 | Raptors | 25% | 92 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 70% | 97 | 76 |
| 24 | Wizards | 30% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 72% | 106 | 99 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 28% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 53% | 96 | 90 |
| 19 | Hawks | 47% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 66% | 103 | 121 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 34% | 98 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 42% | 93 | 100 |
| 9 | Magic | 58% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 14% | 86 | 71 |
| 3 | Bulls | 86% | 100 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 44% | 96 | 89 |
| 14 | Rockets | 56% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 53% | 96 | 100 |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 47% | 95 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 34% | 101 | 104 |
| 18 | Jazz | 66% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 94 | 97 |
| 8 | Clippers | 75% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 46% | 99 | 102 | |
| 26 | Warriors | 54% | 101 | 100 |
Thursday, March 29, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 31% | 93 | 89 |
| 16 | Pacers | 69% | 100 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 31% | 92 | 85 |
| 1 | Heat | 69% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 30% | 92 | 93 | |
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 47% | 98 | 102 |
| 5 | Lakers | 53% | 99 | 93 |
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 55% | 102 | 96 |
| 24 | Raptors | 45% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 42% | 96 | 86 |
| 7 | Knicks | 58% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 62% | 103 | 88 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 38% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 49% | 97 | 87 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 51% | 98 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 38% | 92 | 82 |
| 11 | Celtics | 62% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 57% | 99 | 84 |
| 23 | Nets | 43% | 96 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bulls | 60% | 93 | 98 |
| 18 | Hawks | 40% | 90 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 60% | 105 | 117 |
| 21 | Kings | 40% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 32% | 97 | 86 |
| 9 | Clippers | 68% | 103 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 47% | 95 | 102 | |
| 26 | Warriors | 53% | 96 | 87 |
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 19% | 88 | 85 |
| 11 | 76ers | 81% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 45% | 96 | 101 |
| 13 | Bucks | 55% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 32% | 97 | 86 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 68% | 104 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Rockets | 24% | 92 | 81 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 76% | 102 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 52% | 102 | 107 |
| 15 | Suns | 48% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 63% | 102 | 109 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 69% | 103 | 104 |
| 26 | Warriors | 31% | 96 | 101 |
Monday, March 26, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 62% | 98 | 117 |
| 23 | Raptors | 38% | 93 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 42% | 95 | 79 |
| 25 | Wizards | 58% | 98 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 71% | 95 | 102 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 29% | 88 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 60% | 97 | 90 |
| 16 | Pacers | 40% | 94 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 46% | 100 | 105 |
| 22 | Nets | 54% | 101 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 34% | 99 | 80 |
| 6 | Knicks | 66% | 105 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 20% | 93 | 108 |
| 3 | Bulls | 80% | 105 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 34% | 99 | 106 |
| 19 | Rockets | 66% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 25% | 90 | 85 | |
| 9 | Clippers | 75% | 99 | 97 |
Sunday, March 25, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 59% | 103 | 108 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 41% | 100 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 49% | 106 | 100 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 51% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 20% | 87 | 76 |
| 11 | Celtics | 80% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 41% | 94 | 133 |
| 16 | Hawks | 59% | 97 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 46% | 95 | 76 |
| 7 | Spurs | 54% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 48% | 98 | 87 |
| 3 | Thunder | 52% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 30% | 97 | 87 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 30% | 93 | 102 |
| 5 | Lakers | 70% | 100 | 96 |
Saturday, March 24, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 46% | 96 | 85 |
| 13 | Clippers | 54% | 98 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 54% | 95 | 95 |
| 24 | Wizards | 46% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 25% | 93 | 89 |
| 22 | Nets | 75% | 102 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 17% | 93 | 79 |
| 6 | Knicks | 83% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 14% | 87 | 101 |
| 2 | Bulls | 86% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spurs | 57% | 96 | 89 |
| 27 | Hornets | 43% | 94 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 52% | 97 | 101 |
| 19 | Rockets | 48% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 38% | 97 | 125 |
| 11 | Bucks | 62% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 44% | 102 | 108 |
| 26 | Warriors | 56% | 104 | 111 |
Friday, March 23, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 66% | 103 | 79 |
| 26 | Raptors | 34% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 69% | 103 | 112 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 31% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 21% | 93 | 80 |
| 7 | Magic | 79% | 104 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 45% | 97 | 113 |
| 17 | Pacers | 55% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 30% | 90 | 84 | |
| 15 | Hawks | 70% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 80% | 103 | 88 |
| 29 | Pistons | 20% | 91 | 73 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 32% | 85 | 86 |
| 9 | 76ers | 68% | 91 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 22% | 96 | 140 |
| 3 | Thunder | 78% | 106 | 149 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 44% | 97 | 87 |
| 8 | Spurs | 56% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 53% | 104 | 102 |
| 20 | Jazz | 47% | 103 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 93 | 96 |
| 6 | Lakers | 75% | 102 | 103 |
Thursday, March 22, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 64% | 99 | 85 |
| 26 | Wizards | 36% | 94 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 46% | 95 | 100 |
| 12 | Bucks | 54% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clippers | 59% | 95 | 90 |
| 27 | Hornets | 41% | 92 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 31% | 97 | 83 |
| 18 | Rockets | 69% | 104 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 49% | 103 | 103 |
| 21 | Kings | 51% | 104 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 53% | 98 | 93 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 97 | 97 |
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 76% | 99 | 94 |
| 25 | Raptors | 24% | 89 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 37% | 94 | 82 |
| 9 | 76ers | 63% | 98 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 30% | 94 | 93 |
| 6 | Magic | 70% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 38% | 96 | 108 |
| 23 | Nets | 62% | 100 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 28% | 92 | 102 |
| 16 | Hawks | 72% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 47% | 95 | 101 |
| 26 | Hornets | 53% | 96 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 29% | 95 | 91 |
| 4 | Thunder | 71% | 102 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 23% | 97 | 100 |
| 3 | Spurs | 77% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 24% | 98 | 115 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 76% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 33% | 92 | 109 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 67% | 98 | 93 |