Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 23 | Raptors | 60% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Magic | 84% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 23% | 87 | 70 | |
 | 11 | Celtics | 77% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bobcats | 15% | 95 | 118 |
 | 13 | Knicks | 85% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Heat | 75% | 103 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Bulls | 66% | 97 | 99 |
 | 24 | Pistons | 34% | 91 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Timberwolves | 61% | 102 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Mavericks | 72% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 28 | Hornets | 35% | 92 | 93 | |
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Thunder | 54% | 103 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 33% | 95 | 101 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 67% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 2 | Bulls | 73% | 97 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 42% | 94 | 96 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 58% | 97 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Bucks | 54% | 98 | 73 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 21 | Jazz | 46% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 29% | 94 | 99 |
 | 6 | Lakers | 71% | 102 | 108 |
Monday, January 2, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 64% | 98 | 78 |
| 23 | Pistons | 36% | 93 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 38% | 96 | 91 |
| 18 | Suns | 62% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 18% | 87 | 92 |
| 8 | Celtics | 82% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 63% | 97 | 108 |
| 26 | Nets | 37% | 92 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 18% | 95 | 90 |
| 12 | Knicks | 82% | 107 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 32% | 95 | 100 |
| 1 | Heat | 68% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 66% | 104 | 96 |
| 19 | Timberwolves | 34% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 44% | 100 | 87 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 56% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 37% | 100 | 86 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 63% | 105 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 35% | 94 | 90 | |
| 21 | Jazz | 65% | 99 | 94 |
Sunday, January 1, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bobcats | 13% | 92 | 90 |
| 1 | Heat | 87% | 107 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 70% | 95 | 94 |
| 30 | Wizards | 30% | 88 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 17% | 90 | 96 |
| 2 | Magic | 83% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 47% | 95 | 82 | |
| 24 | Cavaliers | 53% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 69% | 108 | 82 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 31% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 26% | 93 | 64 |
| 3 | Bulls | 74% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 38% | 100 | 90 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 62% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 52% | 93 | 80 | |
| 28 | Kings | 48% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 103 | 88 |
| 9 | Clippers | 56% | 105 | 93 |
Saturday, December 31, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 49% | 99 | 107 |
| 20 | Warriors | 51% | 100 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 19% | 93 | 89 |
| 10 | Spurs | 81% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 60% | 100 | 114 |
| 25 | Kings | 40% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Suns | 23% | 93 | 97 |
| 5 | Thunder | 77% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 47% | 97 | 84 |
| 17 | Rockets | 53% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 57% | 97 | 88 |
| 26 | Pistons | 43% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 42% | 101 | 89 |
| 7 | Lakers | 58% | 103 | 92 |
Friday, December 30, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 21% | 95 | 86 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 79% | 106 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 38% | 97 | 114 |
| 7 | Clippers | 62% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 59% | 104 | 99 |
| 24 | Jazz | 41% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 26% | 90 | 81 |
| 16 | Bucks | 74% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 72% | 108 | 103 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 28% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Suns | 47% | 92 | 93 |
| 22 | Hornets | 53% | 93 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 34% | 93 | 93 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 66% | 99 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 24% | 89 | 98 | |
| 13 | Hawks | 76% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 23% | 91 | 85 |
| 10 | Celtics | 77% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 29% | 90 | 91 |
| 17 | Pacers | 71% | 97 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Magic | 65% | 99 | 100 |
| 29 | Bobcats | 35% | 94 | 79 |
Thursday, December 29, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 28% | 94 | 82 |
| 6 | Lakers | 72% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 21% | 90 | 78 | |
| 7 | Magic | 79% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spurs | 49% | 97 | 85 |
| 17 | Rockets | 51% | 98 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 43% | 100 | 102 |
| 3 | Thunder | 57% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bulls | 71% | 97 | 108 |
| 28 | Kings | 29% | 90 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 34% | 103 | 102 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 108 | 111 |
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 72% | 104 | 96 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 28% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 57% | 96 | 90 |
| 23 | Raptors | 43% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 32% | 91 | 83 |
| 18 | Hawks | 68% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 40% | 94 | 105 |
| 20 | Pistons | 60% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 54% | 100 | 98 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 46% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 45% | 100 | 90 |
| 8 | Spurs | 55% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 17% | 95 | 100 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 83% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 47% | 100 | 103 |
| 16 | Suns | 53% | 101 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 60% | 96 | 78 |
| 27 | Hornets | 40% | 93 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 64% | 104 | 78 |
| 26 | Warriors | 36% | 99 | 92 |
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 27% | 96 | 95 |
| 14 | Bucks | 73% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 51% | 97 | 106 |
| 20 | Nets | 49% | 96 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 32% | 92 | 107 |
| 1 | Heat | 68% | 98 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 21% | 95 | 79 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 79% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 27% | 94 | 71 |
| 8 | Lakers | 73% | 103 | 96 |
Monday, December 26, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 61% | 98 | 91 |
| 23 | Kings | 39% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 64% | 98 | 95 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 36% | 93 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 31% | 97 | 95 |
| 7 | Magic | 69% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 53% | 100 | 90 | |
| 28 | Wizards | 47% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 43% | 102 | 104 |
| 27 | Cavaliers | 57% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 34% | 98 | 79 |
| 19 | Pacers | 66% | 104 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Thunder | 63% | 102 | 104 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 37% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 39% | 99 | 115 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 61% | 103 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 37% | 96 | 82 |
| 8 | Spurs | 63% | 101 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 30% | 97 | 85 | |
| 15 | Suns | 70% | 104 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 37% | 98 | 103 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bulls | 65% | 100 | 91 |
| 21 | Warriors | 35% | 95 | 99 |
Sunday, December 25, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celtics | 42% | 97 | 104 |
| 13 | Knicks | 58% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 63% | 105 | 105 |
| 22 | Warriors | 37% | 100 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 42% | 97 | 89 |
| 5 | Thunder | 58% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bulls | 43% | 97 | 88 |
| 3 | Lakers | 57% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 45% | 97 | 105 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 55% | 99 | 94 |