Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, April 5, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Heat | 73% | 103 | 89 |
 | 30 | Bobcats | 27% | 94 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 23 | Celtics | 65% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Bucks | 32% | 98 | 83 |
 | 5 | Knicks | 68% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Thunder | 46% | 94 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Magic | 25% | 90 | 86 |
 | 12 | Bulls | 75% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Raptors | 42% | 95 | 95 |
 | 17 | Timberwolves | 58% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hornets | 40% | 98 | 83 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Mavericks | 48% | 106 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Lakers | 56% | 98 | 86 |
Thursday, April 4, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 51% | 96 | 92 |
 | 19 | Nets | 49% | 95 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 40% | 101 | 94 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Thunder | 70% | 103 | 100 |
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 17 | Raptors | 63% | 97 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 61% | 99 | 83 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 39% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 48% | 97 | 95 |
| 15 | Hawks | 52% | 98 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 54% | 99 | 113 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 46% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Pistons | 39% | 95 | 93 |
| 23 | Celtics | 61% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Timberwolves | 42% | 99 | 107 |
| 14 | Bucks | 58% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 14% | 92 | 84 |
| 2 | Spurs | 86% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 53% | 102 | 113 |
| 16 | Jazz | 47% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 55% | 108 | 112 |
| 20 | Kings | 45% | 106 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 69% | 99 | 94 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 92 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 16% | 92 | 101 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 4 | Clippers | 84% | 105 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 35% | 98 | 88 | |
| 12 | Warriors | 65% | 103 | 98 |
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 54% | 94 | 86 |
| 22 | Wizards | 46% | 92 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 40% | 96 | 102 |
| 5 | Heat | 60% | 100 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 41% | 103 | 81 |
| 8 | Lakers | 59% | 106 | 101 |
Monday, April 1, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 33% | 95 | 108 |
| 16 | Raptors | 67% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Cavaliers | 30% | 95 | 94 |
| 19 | Hawks | 70% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 23% | 97 | 102 |
| 14 | Bucks | 77% | 107 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 45% | 95 | 90 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 55% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 20% | 96 | 103 |
| 9 | Rockets | 80% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 37% | 93 | 100 |
| 17 | Timberwolves | 63% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 99 | 102 |
| 15 | Jazz | 67% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 40% | 93 | 109 |
| 3 | Clippers | 60% | 96 | 106 |
Sunday, March 31, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 49% | 95 | 92 |
| 24 | Wizards | 51% | 96 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 37% | 97 | 92 |
| 19 | Hornets | 63% | 102 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 29% | 92 | 94 |
| 12 | Bulls | 71% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 39% | 97 | 88 |
| 1 | Spurs | 61% | 101 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 31% | 92 | 89 |
| 6 | Knicks | 69% | 99 | 108 |
Saturday, March 30, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 41% | 97 | 98 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 59% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 29% | 93 | 88 |
| 20 | Hawks | 71% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bobcats | 30% | 94 | 92 |
| 23 | 76ers | 70% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 49% | 104 | 81 |
| 8 | Rockets | 51% | 105 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 52% | 95 | 99 |
| 16 | Timberwolves | 48% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 59% | 102 | 109 |
| 14 | Bucks | 41% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 41% | 96 | 107 |
| 15 | Jazz | 59% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 77% | 98 | 112 |
| 30 | Suns | 23% | 88 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 56% | 108 | 103 |
| 22 | Kings | 44% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 98 | 98 |
| 12 | Warriors | 74% | 107 | 125 |
Friday, March 29, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 51% | 96 | 92 |
| 27 | Magic | 49% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 49% | 93 | 107 |
| 22 | Celtics | 51% | 94 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 16% | 93 | 102 |
| 5 | Knicks | 84% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 52% | 99 | 99 |
| 26 | Pistons | 48% | 98 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 51% | 98 | 97 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 49% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 43% | 98 | 94 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 57% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 68% | 102 | 108 |
| 17 | Hornets | 32% | 96 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 66% | 101 | 93 |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 34% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 33% | 97 | 102 |
| 1 | Spurs | 67% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 34% | 95 | 87 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 66% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 51% | 102 | 105 |
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 101 | 95 |
Thursday, March 28, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 51% | 105 | 103 |
| 14 | Bucks | 49% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 41% | 95 | 103 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 59% | 98 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 54% | 103 | 117 |
| 29 | Suns | 46% | 101 | 103 |
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 47% | 96 | 107 |
| 19 | Raptors | 53% | 97 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 55% | 99 | 92 |
| 26 | 76ers | 45% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 56% | 101 | 108 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 44% | 99 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 53% | 97 | 93 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 47% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 44% | 93 | 101 |
| 7 | Knicks | 56% | 95 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 62% | 97 | 97 |
| 13 | Bulls | 38% | 93 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 62% | 100 | 105 |
| 21 | Hornets | 38% | 96 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 37% | 96 | 100 |
| 6 | Rockets | 63% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 19% | 90 | 80 |
| 3 | Thunder | 81% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 57% | 102 | 120 |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 43% | 99 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 29% | 98 | 99 |
| 1 | Spurs | 71% | 105 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 31% | 95 | 88 |
| 20 | Jazz | 69% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 33% | 102 | 105 |
| 11 | Warriors | 67% | 109 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 47% | 99 | 111 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 101 | 93 |
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 54% | 95 | 100 |
| 18 | Celtics | 46% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 55% | 99 | 105 |
| 27 | Pistons | 45% | 97 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 56% | 103 | 102 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 44% | 101 | 109 |
Monday, March 25, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 59% | 92 | 94 |
| 24 | Wizards | 41% | 89 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heat | 69% | 101 | 108 |
| 26 | Magic | 31% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 35% | 90 | 94 |
| 11 | Pacers | 65% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 61% | 101 | 86 |
| 21 | Hornets | 39% | 97 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 36% | 94 | 91 |
| 20 | Jazz | 64% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 48% | 103 | 103 |
| 12 | Warriors | 52% | 104 | 109 |
Sunday, March 24, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 46% | 99 | 104 |
| 16 | Bucks | 54% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 9% | 90 | 77 |
| 3 | Heat | 91% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 60% | 105 | 95 |
| 6 | Rockets | 40% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 97 | 83 |
| 2 | Thunder | 78% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 42% | 92 | 104 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 58% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 34% | 99 | 108 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 66% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 62% | 98 | 102 |
| 29 | Suns | 38% | 94 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 42% | 99 | 117 |
| 23 | Kings | 58% | 102 | 103 |
Saturday, March 23, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 48% | 101 | 92 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 52% | 102 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 32% | 94 | 84 |
| 8 | Knicks | 68% | 100 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 43% | 90 | 84 |
| 19 | Bulls | 57% | 92 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 31% | 86 | 106 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 69% | 93 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 23% | 101 | 95 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 77% | 110 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 29% | 94 | 95 |
| 4 | Clippers | 71% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 32% | 94 | 92 |
| 11 | Warriors | 68% | 100 | 101 |