Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 23% | 93 | 97 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bobcats | 34% | 93 | 75 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Knicks | 55% | 102 | 81 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Heat | 73% | 100 | 101 |
 | 29 | Pistons | 27% | 91 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Bulls | 77% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Bucks | 38% | 96 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 22% | 89 | 91 | |
 | 5 | Thunder | 78% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Timberwolves | 25% | 90 | 105 |
 | 6 | Mavericks | 75% | 100 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Raptors | 24% | 93 | 111 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Lakers | 68% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, January 24, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 67% | 102 | 111 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 33% | 96 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Magic | 43% | 92 | 102 |
| 15 | Pacers | 57% | 95 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 17% | 94 | 85 |
| 1 | Heat | 83% | 106 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 27% | 92 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 7 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 99 | 97 |
Monday, January 23, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 15% | 90 | 83 |
| 9 | 76ers | 85% | 104 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 60% | 92 | 56 |
 | 16 | Celtics | 40% | 88 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 14% | 89 | 95 | |
| 4 | Bulls | 86% | 104 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 52% | 93 | 97 |
| 18 | Bucks | 48% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Spurs | 61% | 95 | 104 |
| 25 | Hornets | 39% | 92 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 14% | 89 | 79 |
| 1 | Thunder | 86% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 51% | 100 | 107 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 49% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 30% | 92 | 87 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 70% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 17% | 93 | 89 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 83% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 54% | 99 | 91 |
| 21 | Warriors | 46% | 98 | 90 |
Sunday, January 22, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 67% | 95 | 100 |
| 27 | Wizards | 33% | 89 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 26% | 92 | 91 |
| 17 | Clippers | 74% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 30% | 96 | 87 |
| 23 | Nets | 70% | 103 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 26% | 92 | 91 |
| 1 | Heat | 74% | 101 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 32% | 91 | 98 |
| 5 | Lakers | 68% | 97 | 96 |
Saturday, January 21, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 26% | 91 | 94 |
| 14 | Hawks | 74% | 99 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 55% | 104 | 119 |
| 17 | Knicks | 45% | 103 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 32% | 94 | 92 |
| 1 | Heat | 68% | 100 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 74% | 101 | 91 |
| 30 | Pistons | 26% | 92 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 66% | 104 | 84 |
| 23 | Nets | 34% | 99 | 74 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bobcats | 13% | 86 | 89 |
| 3 | Bulls | 87% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 24% | 91 | 95 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 76% | 101 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 74% | 95 | 83 |
| 25 | Hornets | 26% | 87 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spurs | 38% | 97 | 102 |
| 10 | Rockets | 62% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 36% | 96 | 98 |
| 19 | Jazz | 64% | 101 | 108 |
Friday, January 20, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 71% | 100 | 94 |
| 26 | Raptors | 29% | 92 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 36% | 91 | 76 |
| 9 | 76ers | 64% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 75% | 106 | 108 |
| 30 | Wizards | 25% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 35% | 91 | 79 |
| 10 | Celtics | 65% | 96 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 41% | 96 | 100 |
| 18 | Knicks | 59% | 99 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 66% | 98 | 98 |
| 28 | Pistons | 34% | 93 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 65% | 96 | 114 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 35% | 90 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 40% | 92 | 80 |
| 6 | Magic | 60% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 22% | 93 | 88 |
| 11 | Spurs | 78% | 103 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 35% | 97 | 101 |
| 14 | Clippers | 65% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 52% | 98 | 94 |
| 22 | Warriors | 48% | 97 | 91 |
Thursday, January 19, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 41% | 95 | 87 |
| 4 | Heat | 59% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 21% | 90 | 88 | |
| 11 | Rockets | 79% | 101 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mavericks | 57% | 98 | 94 |
| 19 | Jazz | 43% | 95 | 91 |
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 36% | 99 | 108 |
| 9 | 76ers | 64% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 77% | 102 | 102 |
| 30 | Wizards | 23% | 92 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Spurs | 31% | 92 | 85 |
| 5 | Magic | 69% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 21% | 86 | 73 |
| 6 | Celtics | 79% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 39% | 99 | 100 |
| 23 | Nets | 61% | 103 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Suns | 34% | 98 | 91 |
| 16 | Knicks | 66% | 104 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 96 | 89 |
| 12 | Hawks | 51% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 63% | 94 | 93 |
| 26 | Hornets | 37% | 90 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 26% | 94 | 85 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 74% | 102 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 67% | 99 | 88 |
| 28 | Kings | 33% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mavericks | 58% | 98 | 89 |
| 13 | Clippers | 42% | 95 | 91 |
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bobcats | 12% | 89 | 89 |
| 2 | Magic | 88% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 43% | 99 | 105 |
| 22 | Cavaliers | 57% | 101 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spurs | 26% | 95 | 98 |
| 1 | Heat | 74% | 103 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 34% | 89 | 97 |
| 11 | Bulls | 66% | 95 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 61% | 102 | 105 |
| 19 | Bucks | 39% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 27% | 95 | 80 |
| 13 | Rockets | 73% | 104 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 52% | 100 | 79 |
| 21 | Jazz | 48% | 99 | 108 |
Monday, January 16, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 57% | 99 | 102 |
| 18 | Knicks | 43% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 63% | 94 | 86 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 37% | 89 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 27% | 91 | 82 |
| 10 | 76ers | 73% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 68% | 101 | 114 |
| 30 | Wizards | 32% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cavaliers | 57% | 100 | 102 |
| 28 | Bobcats | 43% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 25% | 89 | 84 |
| 14 | Hawks | 75% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 69% | 100 | 84 |
| 27 | Hornets | 31% | 93 | 77 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 19% | 96 | 91 | |
| 4 | Clippers | 81% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 43% | 92 | 97 |
| 9 | Celtics | 57% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 30% | 96 | 86 |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 70% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 40% | 93 | 70 |
| 3 | Lakers | 60% | 97 | 73 |
Sunday, January 15, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 43% | 97 | 99 |
| 27 | Pistons | 57% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 20% | 97 | 106 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 80% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 38% | 97 | 91 |
| 13 | Spurs | 62% | 101 | 102 |
Saturday, January 14, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 73% | 99 | 103 |
| 29 | Wizards | 27% | 90 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 59% | 100 | 100 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 41% | 97 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 26% | 92 | 91 |
| 12 | Hawks | 74% | 100 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 53% | 91 | 83 |
| 17 | Pacers | 47% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 14% | 85 | 64 |
| 2 | Bulls | 86% | 100 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 25% | 88 | 99 | |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 75% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 101 | 105 |
| 14 | Rockets | 51% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 27% | 94 | 92 |
| 6 | Thunder | 73% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 16% | 91 | 60 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 84% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 34% | 98 | 94 | |
| 19 | Jazz | 66% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 34% | 96 | 94 |
| 3 | Clippers | 66% | 101 | 102 |
Friday, January 13, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 58% | 96 | 95 |
| 25 | Raptors | 42% | 94 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 19% | 88 | 89 |
| 11 | 76ers | 81% | 100 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 40% | 95 | 98 |
| 28 | Bobcats | 60% | 98 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bulls | 47% | 88 | 88 |
| 6 | Celtics | 53% | 89 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 51% | 97 | 87 |
| 26 | Hornets | 49% | 96 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 26% | 96 | 89 |
| 14 | Rockets | 74% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 25% | 91 | 76 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 75% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 101 | 83 |
| 13 | Spurs | 47% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 39% | 96 | 110 | |
| 18 | Suns | 61% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 53% | 103 | 104 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 47% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Cavaliers | 17% | 90 | 92 |
| 2 | Lakers | 83% | 103 | 97 |
Thursday, January 12, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 25% | 90 | 81 |
| 15 | Hawks | 75% | 99 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 26% | 89 | 93 |
| 19 | Bucks | 74% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 42% | 97 | 83 |
| 17 | Grizzlies | 58% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 30% | 96 | 101 |
| 13 | Suns | 70% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 59% | 99 | 117 |
| 22 | Warriors | 41% | 96 | 109 |