Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, January 7, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Thunder | 76% | 100 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Celtics | 29% | 93 | 102 |
 | 5 | Knicks | 71% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Bulls | 76% | 100 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 22 | Hornets | 27% | 95 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Mavericks | 41% | 98 | 94 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Magic | 39% | 97 | 119 |
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Sunday, January 6, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 65% | 101 | 104 |
 | 18 | Raptors | 35% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 15% | 89 | 71 |
 | 3 | Heat | 85% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bobcats | 29% | 95 | 108 |
 | 25 | Pistons | 71% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 61% | 96 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Lakers | 68% | 107 | 105 |
Saturday, January 5, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 33% | 92 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 65% | 101 | 114 |
| 27 | Magic | 35% | 96 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Bucks | 40% | 91 | 80 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 32% | 96 | 93 |
 | 14 | Nets | 68% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 29 | Cavaliers | 31% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 96 | 102 |
 | 13 | Timberwolves | 69% | 103 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 41% | 98 | 99 | |
| 20 | Mavericks | 59% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Spurs | 85% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 27% | 96 | 91 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 73% | 104 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 2 | Clippers | 70% | 104 | 115 |
Friday, January 4, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 36% | 97 | 105 |
| 18 | Raptors | 64% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 62% | 96 | 115 |
| 28 | Wizards | 38% | 92 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 53% | 100 | 106 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 47% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 27% | 92 | 96 |
| 4 | Heat | 73% | 100 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 58% | 98 | 84 |
| 25 | Pistons | 42% | 96 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 47% | 91 | 75 |
| 16 | Celtics | 53% | 92 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 90 | 86 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 75% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 22% | 92 | 85 |
| 2 | Thunder | 78% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 51% | 103 | 115 |
| 15 | Bucks | 49% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 47% | 99 | 87 |
| 21 | Suns | 53% | 100 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 34% | 99 | 102 |
| 3 | Clippers | 66% | 104 | 107 |
Thursday, January 3, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 48% | 100 | 83 |
| 5 | Knicks | 52% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Timberwolves | 30% | 97 | 101 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 70% | 104 | 97 |
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 97 | 79 |
| 17 | Raptors | 63% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bulls | 58% | 95 | 96 |
| 27 | Magic | 42% | 93 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 47% | 100 | 97 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 53% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 21% | 86 | 81 |
| 12 | Pacers | 79% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 58% | 93 | 93 |
| 18 | Celtics | 42% | 90 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mavericks | 17% | 93 | 109 |
| 2 | Heat | 83% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 66% | 101 | 117 |
| 15 | Bucks | 34% | 96 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 24% | 98 | 92 | |
| 9 | Rockets | 76% | 107 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 24% | 92 | 110 |
| 3 | Thunder | 76% | 102 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 52% | 100 | 84 |
| 19 | Jazz | 48% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 41% | 96 | 89 |
| 22 | Suns | 59% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 55% | 101 | 94 |
| 13 | Warriors | 45% | 99 | 115 |
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 54% | 96 | 103 |
| 28 | Wizards | 46% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 94 | 105 |
| 7 | Knicks | 74% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 43% | 98 | 97 |
| 25 | Pistons | 57% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 49% | 98 | 95 |
| 21 | Hornets | 51% | 99 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Clippers | 52% | 101 | 78 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 48% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 26% | 96 | 103 |
| 5 | Lakers | 74% | 105 | 99 |
Monday, December 31, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 49% | 89 | 83 |
| 12 | Pacers | 51% | 90 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 18% | 91 | 91 |
| 13 | Bulls | 82% | 103 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heat | 70% | 101 | 112 |
| 27 | Magic | 30% | 94 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 43% | 100 | 104 |
| 9 | Rockets | 57% | 102 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Suns | 20% | 94 | 96 |
| 3 | Thunder | 80% | 105 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 22% | 94 | 73 |
| 1 | Spurs | 78% | 104 | 104 |
Sunday, December 30, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 51% | 97 | 94 |
| 25 | Pistons | 49% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 70% | 104 | 111 |
| 20 | Mavericks | 30% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 49% | 98 | 96 |
| 27 | Kings | 51% | 99 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 21% | 93 | 96 |
| 2 | Clippers | 79% | 104 | 107 |
Saturday, December 29, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 61% | 101 | 98 | |
| 30 | Bobcats | 39% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 41% | 91 | 100 |
| 10 | Hawks | 59% | 94 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 41% | 95 | 123 |
| 21 | Magic | 59% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 24% | 93 | 100 |
| 17 | Nets | 76% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 22% | 87 | 77 |
| 13 | Bulls | 78% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 40% | 96 | 72 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 60% | 99 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 57% | 104 | 124 |
| 7 | Rockets | 43% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 26% | 96 | 107 |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 74% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 58% | 101 | 85 |
| 16 | Bucks | 42% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 48% | 96 | 85 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 45% | 97 | 83 |
| 14 | Warriors | 55% | 99 | 101 |
Friday, December 28, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 56% | 95 | 97 |
| 28 | Wizards | 44% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Suns | 30% | 90 | 91 |
| 12 | Pacers | 70% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 22% | 94 | 81 |
| 17 | Nets | 78% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 73% | 101 | 99 |
| 26 | Pistons | 27% | 93 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 70% | 101 | 102 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 30% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 46% | 97 | 104 |
| 24 | Hornets | 54% | 98 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 61% | 103 | 106 |
| 18 | Mavericks | 39% | 100 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 30% | 99 | 116 |
| 2 | Spurs | 70% | 106 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 61% | 99 | 116 |
| 19 | Jazz | 39% | 95 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 71% | 104 | 105 |
| 27 | Kings | 29% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 97 | 87 |
| 5 | Lakers | 80% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 36% | 97 | 89 |
| 14 | Warriors | 64% | 102 | 96 |
Thursday, December 27, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Mavericks | 19% | 94 | 105 |
| 1 | Thunder | 81% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 28% | 91 | 77 |
| 4 | Clippers | 72% | 98 | 106 |
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 43% | 95 | 87 |
| 28 | Wizards | 57% | 97 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 78% | 105 | 105 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 22% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 37% | 93 | 97 | |
| 21 | Magic | 63% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 29% | 92 | 119 |
| 10 | Hawks | 71% | 100 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 39% | 93 | 93 |
| 18 | Bucks | 61% | 96 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 29% | 90 | 99 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 71% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 41% | 101 | 87 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 59% | 104 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 18% | 94 | 80 |
| 3 | Spurs | 82% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 48% | 103 | 114 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 52% | 104 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 47% | 102 | 94 |
| 16 | Jazz | 53% | 103 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 60% | 103 | 99 |
| 20 | Suns | 40% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 40% | 98 | 91 |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 102 | 109 |
Tuesday, December 25, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 44% | 94 | 93 |
| 15 | Nets | 56% | 96 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 45% | 103 | 94 |
| 6 | Lakers | 55% | 105 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 43% | 97 | 97 |
| 4 | Heat | 57% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 43% | 97 | 120 |
| 10 | Bulls | 57% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 31% | 95 | 100 |
| 3 | Clippers | 69% | 102 | 112 |