Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, April 20, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Bobcats | 18% | 89 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Celtics | 48% | 89 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Knicks | 78% | 105 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Mavericks | 83% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Lakers | 34% | 97 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Thunder | 74% | 107 | 103 |
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Thursday, April 19, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Bucks | 34% | 98 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Timberwolves | 49% | 100 | 91 |
 | 25 | Pistons | 51% | 101 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Bulls | 42% | 92 | 72 |
 | 7 | Heat | 58% | 95 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 21 | Hornets | 41% | 93 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, April 18, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 65% | 102 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 85% | 101 | 100 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 15% | 87 | 68 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 29 | Cavaliers | 25% | 90 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 63% | 102 | 104 |
| 22 | Nets | 37% | 97 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 23% | 91 | 84 |
| 16 | Hawks | 77% | 101 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Raptors | 17% | 88 | 72 |
| 4 | Heat | 83% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Magic | 34% | 88 | 98 |
| 8 | Celtics | 66% | 94 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hornets | 28% | 89 | 91 | |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 72% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 33% | 94 | 110 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 67% | 100 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 44% | 102 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 58% | 102 | 109 |
| 17 | Suns | 42% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 107 | 127 |
| 23 | Kings | 33% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lakers | 58% | 102 | 99 |
| 21 | Warriors | 42% | 99 | 87 |
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 35% | 91 | 102 |
| 11 | 76ers | 65% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 39% | 95 | 77 |
| 25 | Pistons | 61% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 40% | 91 | 110 |
| 6 | Knicks | 60% | 94 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 70% | 102 | 91 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 30% | 95 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 38% | 98 | 112 |
| 7 | Lakers | 62% | 102 | 91 |
Monday, April 16, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 58% | 94 | 109 |
| 25 | Raptors | 42% | 91 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hornets | 66% | 98 | 75 | |
| 30 | Bobcats | 34% | 92 | 67 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 59% | 94 | 100 |
| 19 | Magic | 41% | 91 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 27% | 96 | 88 |
| 15 | Pacers | 73% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 70% | 102 | 101 |
| 23 | Nets | 30% | 95 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 18% | 88 | 87 |
| 4 | Bulls | 82% | 100 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 42% | 102 | 105 |
| 13 | Rockets | 58% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 51% | 99 | 121 |
| 18 | Jazz | 49% | 98 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 98 | 107 |
| 16 | Suns | 71% | 105 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 49% | 98 | 77 |
| 8 | Clippers | 51% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 68% | 105 | 120 |
| 22 | Warriors | 32% | 99 | 99 |
Sunday, April 15, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 47% | 98 | 93 |
| 6 | Knicks | 53% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 47% | 95 | 108 |
| 8 | Lakers | 53% | 97 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 78% | 96 | 94 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 22% | 85 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 25% | 88 | 102 |
| 15 | Hawks | 75% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls | 76% | 100 | 100 |
| 27 | Pistons | 24% | 90 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 65% | 99 | 100 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 35% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 104 | 103 |
| 24 | Kings | 47% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 57% | 95 | 75 |
| 21 | Hornets | 43% | 93 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 44% | 103 | 86 |
| 13 | Nuggets | 56% | 105 | 101 |
Saturday, April 14, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 24% | 96 | 104 |
| 7 | Clippers | 76% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 35% | 96 | 98 |
| 24 | Wizards | 65% | 101 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 63% | 95 | 94 |
| 21 | Nets | 37% | 90 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 31% | 96 | 98 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 69% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 68% | 103 | 115 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 32% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 37% | 97 | 105 |
| 13 | Bucks | 63% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 25% | 98 | 91 |
| 2 | Spurs | 75% | 107 | 105 |
Friday, April 13, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 71% | 92 | 79 |
| 28 | Raptors | 29% | 85 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 23% | 90 | 95 | |
| 10 | 76ers | 77% | 100 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 51% | 96 | 109 |
| 19 | Magic | 49% | 95 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 22% | 92 | 83 |
| 17 | Pacers | 78% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 20% | 93 | 65 |
| 5 | Knicks | 80% | 104 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 4% | 87 | 82 |
| 1 | Heat | 96% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 66% | 101 | 113 |
| 27 | Pistons | 34% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 57% | 97 | 85 |
| 23 | Hornets | 43% | 95 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 38% | 99 | 112 |
| 11 | Rockets | 62% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 15% | 95 | 89 |
| 2 | Thunder | 85% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 39% | 102 | 97 |
| 9 | Lakers | 61% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 54% | 99 | 97 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 98 | 94 |
Thursday, April 12, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 58% | 98 | 109 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 42% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 45% | 95 | 86 |
| 3 | Bulls | 55% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 62% | 102 | 95 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 38% | 98 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 33% | 96 | 97 |
| 4 | Spurs | 67% | 101 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 70% | 102 | 112 |
| 22 | Warriors | 30% | 95 | 103 |
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 61% | 94 | 93 |
| 27 | Raptors | 39% | 90 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 71% | 101 | 104 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 29% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 37% | 86 | 86 |
| 6 | Celtics | 63% | 90 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 44% | 100 | 111 |
| 13 | Bucks | 56% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 37% | 97 | 93 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 63% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 36% | 96 | 96 |
| 23 | Hornets | 64% | 101 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 35% | 98 | 103 |
| 10 | Rockets | 65% | 103 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 33% | 95 | 100 |
| 2 | Thunder | 67% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 36% | 98 | 98 |
| 4 | Spurs | 64% | 103 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 29% | 103 | 107 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 71% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 36% | 99 | 110 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 64% | 104 | 118 |
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 54% | 98 | 85 |
| 25 | Wizards | 46% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 33% | 88 | 115 |
| 1 | Heat | 67% | 94 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 29% | 94 | 90 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 71% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 58% | 96 | 107 |
| 21 | Nets | 42% | 94 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 18% | 92 | 100 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 82% | 105 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 38% | 93 | 86 |
| 4 | Bulls | 62% | 98 | 98 |
Monday, April 9, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 58% | 99 | 113 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 42% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 26% | 92 | 89 |
| 19 | Magic | 74% | 101 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 21% | 90 | 98 |
| 14 | Pacers | 79% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 48% | 100 | 109 |
| 10 | Bucks | 52% | 101 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 44% | 96 | 85 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 56% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 64% | 98 | 93 |
| 24 | Hornets | 36% | 93 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 54% | 105 | 114 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 46% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 32% | 102 | 84 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 68% | 109 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 58% | 103 | 84 |
| 18 | Jazz | 42% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 46% | 100 | 94 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 54% | 101 | 89 |
Sunday, April 8, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 49% | 96 | 99 |
| 8 | Knicks | 51% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 39% | 86 | 79 |
| 6 | Celtics | 61% | 90 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 30% | 95 | 117 |
| 21 | Nets | 70% | 102 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 18% | 88 | 75 |
| 4 | Heat | 82% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 29% | 98 | 104 |
| 3 | Spurs | 71% | 105 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 15% | 92 | 75 |
| 1 | Thunder | 85% | 106 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 65% | 104 | 104 |
| 25 | Kings | 35% | 98 | 87 |
Saturday, April 7, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 72% | 99 | 116 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 28% | 91 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 53% | 92 | 86 |
| 15 | Pacers | 47% | 91 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 34% | 89 | 88 |
| 10 | 76ers | 66% | 94 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 43% | 94 | 89 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 57% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 51% | 99 | 90 |
| 24 | Hornets | 49% | 98 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 99 | 94 |
| 12 | Bucks | 67% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 48% | 100 | 105 |
| 14 | Suns | 52% | 101 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 23% | 96 | 94 |
| 6 | Clippers | 77% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 54% | 106 | 97 |
| 23 | Warriors | 46% | 104 | 112 |